How BAD is Climate Change Going To Be?

[BDanielMayfield]

Since the reality of climate change is now undeniable, I thought a new topic is in order. This can serve as a place to discuss the facts and projections of how bad things will get as well as how soon such effects will undoubtedly occur.

PS. The current (Sept. 2019) issue of National Geographic has a cover story that is very germane to this sad subject. Highly recommended reading.

Bruce

[Chris Peterson]

Since the reality of climate change is now undeniable, I thought a new topic is in order. This can serve as a place to discuss the facts and projections of how bad things will get as well as how soon such effects will undoubtedly occur. :|

PS. The current (Sept. 2019) issue of National Geographic has a cover story that is very germane to this sad subject. Highly recommended reading.

What's scary is that virtually every projection produced by the models in the last few decades has understated the actual degree of warming as well as the consequences of most of the climatic and weather events resulting from that warming. In many cases the actual changes are greater than even the extreme 5% projections. And every day we're learning more about new positive feedback components, and seeing that the negative feedbacks are too slow to have much of an effect.

[tauparsec]

Since the reality of climate change is now undeniable, I thought a new topic is in order. This can serve as a place to discuss the facts and projections of how bad things will get as well as how soon such effects will undoubtedly occur.

PS. The current (Sept. 2019) issue of National Geographic has a cover story that is very germane to this sad subject. Highly recommended reading.

What's scary is that virtually every projection produced by the models in the last few decades has understated the actual degree of warming as well as the consequences of most of the climatic and weather events resulting from that warming. In many cases the actual changes are greater than even the extreme 5% projections. And every day we're learning more about new positive feedback components, and seeing that the negative feedbacks are too slow to have much of an effect.

What do you think? Maybe 30-40 years before the sh*t hits the fan?

[Chris Peterson]

Since the reality of climate change is now undeniable, I thought a new topic is in order. This can serve as a place to discuss the facts and projections of how bad things will get as well as how soon such effects will undoubtedly occur. :|

PS. The current (Sept. 2019) issue of National Geographic has a cover story that is very germane to this sad subject. Highly recommended reading.

What's scary is that virtually every projection produced by the models in the last few decades has understated the actual degree of warming as well as the consequences of most of the climatic and weather events resulting from that warming. In many cases the actual changes are greater than even the extreme 5% projections. And every day we're learning more about new positive feedback components, and seeing that the negative feedbacks are too slow to have much of an effect.

What do you think? Maybe 30-40 years before the sh*t hits the fan?

It's hitting right now.

[BDanielMayfield]

What's scary is that virtually every projection produced by the models in the last few decades has understated the actual degree of warming as well as the consequences of most of the climatic and weather events resulting from that warming. In many cases the actual changes are greater than even the extreme 5% projections. And every day we're learning more about new positive feedback components, and seeing that the negative feedbacks are too slow to have much of an effect.

What do you think? Maybe 30-40 years before the sh*t hits the fan?

It's hitting right now.

I totally agree with Chris. I also think that, averaged globally, by several different measurements, the effects will worsen each year.

[rstevenson]

The climatic effects will vary greatly by region, and the responses to those will also vary by region (which is a polite way of saying wealth). Some people will be thoroughly disrupted by relatively minor issues while other people in other areas will be able to withstand -- or at least recover from -- quite catastrophic effects. For example, there'll be well-funded push back against rising sea levels in weathy coastal areas all over the world, while Bangladesh will just go under, with war and pestilence to follow in that corner of the Indian sub-continent.

Probably the worst and most widespread problem for the most people will be reduced food production. If most of the wheat belt of north america becomes too hot and dry for growing wheat, which seems likely, you can't just move the crop further north, due to decreased growing season (but they're working on different strains of wheat, of course.)

Rob

[neufer]

Click to play embedded YouTube video.

Click to play embedded YouTube video.

[BDanielMayfield]

Famine, war and pestilence, with death following close behind.

Well, right you are Rob. In addition to the land based food production problems there's collapse of fisheries to reasonably expect as well. (Due to death of coastal reefs, over fishing, pollution, etc.) The costs of food stocks will soar, while reserves dwindle. It will be hardest first on the poorest nations as international aid drys up, but all will feel the effects of rapid food cost inflation.

Sorry to give such a gloomy forecast, but to expect otherwise is to ignore evidence.

[neufer]

Sorry to give such a gloomy forecast, but to expect otherwise is to ignore evidence.

• Ignorance of evidence is evidence of ignorance.

[BDanielMayfield]

Sorry to give such a gloomy forecast, but to expect otherwise is to ignore evidence.

• Ignorance of evidence is evidence of ignorance.

Well stated.

What has me convinced that a major tipping point has been exceed is all the methane that is being released from arctic lands when permafrost melts. As I'm sure you know Art, CH₄ is a MUCH more potent greenhouse gas than CO₂. For the continued education of others here's what wikipedia says re Methane in the atmosphere:

Methane as a greenhouse gas

Methane in the Earth's atmosphere is a strong greenhouse gas with a global warming potential (GWP) 104 times greater than CO2 in a 20-year time frame; methane is not as persistent a gas as CO2 and tails off to about GWP of 28 for a 100-year time frame.[17][18] This means that a methane emission will have 28 times the impact on temperature of a carbon dioxide emission of the same mass over the following 100 years. Methane has a large effect but for a relatively brief period, having an estimated lifetime of 9.1 years in the atmosphere,[17] whereas carbon dioxide has a small effect for a long period, having an estimated lifetime of over 100 years.

The globally averaged concentration of methane in Earth's atmosphere increased by about 150 percent from 722 ± 25 ppb in 1750 to 1803.2 ± 1.2 ppb in 2011.[17] As of 2011, methane contributed radiative forcing of 0.48 ± 0.05 Wm−2 , or about 17% of the total radiative forcing from all of the long-lived and globally mixed greenhouse gases.[17] According to NOAA, the atmospheric methane concentration has continued to increase since 2011 to an average global concentration of 1850.5 ppb as of July 2018.[19]

Gases of decay from all that decomposing muck from thousands of years of accumulated organic deposits is suddenly being released back into the atmosphere. Can't be reversed now, I fear. The more warmth, the more melted permafrost, releasing more CH₄, causing higher temps, releasing even more CH₄, and so on ...

Bruce

[neufer]

Gases of decay from all that decomposing muck from thousands of years of accumulated organic deposits is suddenly being released back into the atmosphere. Can't be reversed now, I fear. The more warmth, the more melted permafrost, releasing more CH⁴, causing higher temps, releasing even more CH⁴, and so on ...

Methane has the chemical formula CH₄

[BDanielMayfield]

Gases of decay from all that decomposing muck from thousands of years of accumulated organic deposits is suddenly being released back into the atmosphere. Can't be reversed now, I fear. The more warmth, the more melted permafrost, releasing more CH⁴, causing higher temps, releasing even more CH⁴, and so on ...

Methane has the chemical formula CH₄

Yeah, just corrected.

[Psnarf]

In a thousand years, the Northern Hemisphere will be tilted toward the sun at perihelion. Things will be pretty hot thenabouts.
Did humans cause the miles-thick ice sheets that carved out the Great Lakes, Hudson River Valley, Columbia River Valley, to melt? What about the interglacial warming period before this one? Ice ages come and go. Interglacial warming periods arise between the Ice Ages. It's been going on for a billion+ years. During an interglacial warming period, global temperatures rise, glaciers melt, ice sheets like Greenland and Antarctica remain. Of course there is a correlation between temperature rising and greenhouse gas emissions. Earth is not as close to the sun as Venus, that greenhouse-gas disaster is debunked. Greenhouse emissions are rising, interglacial warming makes the global temperatures rise. That two metrics are increasing may suggest a causal relationship. My age has been increasing, does that mean old age is caused by greenhouse-gas emissions?

[Chris Peterson]

In a thousand years, the Northern Hemisphere will be tilted toward the sun at perihelion. Things will be pretty hot thenabouts.
Did humans cause the miles-thick ice sheets that carved out the Great Lakes, Hudson River Valley, Columbia River Valley, to melt? What about the interglacial warming period before this one? Ice ages come and go. Interglacial warming periods arise between the Ice Ages. It's been going on for a billion+ years. During an interglacial warming period, global temperatures rise, glaciers melt, ice sheets like Greenland and Antarctica remain. Of course there is a correlation between temperature rising and greenhouse gas emissions. Earth is not as close to the sun as Venus, that greenhouse-gas disaster is debunked. Greenhouse emissions are rising, interglacial warming makes the global temperatures rise. That two metrics are increasing may suggest a causal relationship. My age has been increasing, does that mean old age is caused by greenhouse-gas emissions?

The northern summer solstice will coincide with perihelion in about 10,000 years. And it won't have a very significant effect on climate.

Essentially all of the current climate change is caused by global warming, which is almost entirely the product of human activity, mainly the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This is a simple fact.

[BDanielMayfield]

An alarming trend this year has been how quickly tropical cyclones have been able to intensify. Here is another case in point, quoting the Washington Post:

Super Typhoon Hagibis was on the brink of reclaiming its Category 5 intensity as of Tuesday morning Eastern time, having reorganized its inner core, known as the eyewall, where the strongest winds and heaviest rains are found.

This follows an extraordinary display of ultra-rapid intensification on Sunday and Monday, when the storm’s winds increased by 100 miles per hour in just 24 hours, one of the fastest rates of intensification ever observed on Earth. According to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Philip Klotzbach, the storm has now been a super typhoon, with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph or greater, for at least 36 hours. This is a record in the western North Pacific so far this season.

The ability of hurricanes and typhoons to rapidly intensify comes from the increased amount of warm ocean waters they draw their energy from. As the world warms, the warm layer of surface water deepens, providing more fuel as it where for the growth of tropical cyclones.

[Chris Peterson]

An alarming trend this year has been how quickly tropical cyclones have been able to intensify. Here is another case in point, quoting the Washington Post:

Super Typhoon Hagibis was on the brink of reclaiming its Category 5 intensity as of Tuesday morning Eastern time, having reorganized its inner core, known as the eyewall, where the strongest winds and heaviest rains are found.

This follows an extraordinary display of ultra-rapid intensification on Sunday and Monday, when the storm’s winds increased by 100 miles per hour in just 24 hours, one of the fastest rates of intensification ever observed on Earth. According to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Philip Klotzbach, the storm has now been a super typhoon, with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph or greater, for at least 36 hours. This is a record in the western North Pacific so far this season.

While the impact of warmer oceans on hurricane formation rate has been difficult to figure out with our current models, the prediction for a long time, with nearly every model, has been that such storms would form faster and reach greater intensity. So this observation, while alarming as you say, is most certainly not surprising.