Starship Asterisk*

Jim Leff wrote: ↑Tue May 28, 2019 7:35 pm Very brief and entertaining video clip

It takes a couple viewings to see exactly what's going on here: the ball flew straight into the pitcher's glove (and he then had to manage his body’s reaction).

I'm curious about the odds of a ball reaching a 11cm x 11cm target from a distance of 18m. Maybe assume, for simplicity, that it's equally likely to be hit anywhere within a 90° horizontal angle (let's discount foul balls), and at any vertical angle of 0 - 45°. Pitcher's mound is about 18m from home plate.

Can anyone help?

Jim Leff wrote: ↑Tue May 28, 2019 8:25 pm
Thanks! 163.6 squared is 26765. So the odds are something like 2 in 26765, or 1 in 13382?

• 1) hitting a 22 cm x 22 cm square in the vicinity of the pitcher is 4 times the
  probability of hitting a 11 cm x 11 cm square in the vicinity of the pitcher
  
  and that the probability of
  
  2) hitting a 33 cm x 33 cm square in the vicinity of the pitcher is 9 times the
  probability of hitting a 11 cm x 11 cm square in the vicinity of the pitcher

Jim Leff wrote: ↑Wed May 29, 2019 4:26 pm
If I understand your question correctly, it was addressed when I suggested we assume, for simplicity, that it's equally likely to be hit anywhere within a 90° horizontal angle and at any vertical angle of 0 - 45°.

However I’m still not sure if I’ve translated your previous reply into the correct “1 in xx” statement of odds.