APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

[APOD Robot]

Asteroid 2014 JO25

Explanation: A day before its closest approach, asteroid 2014 JO25 was imaged by radar with the 70-meter antenna of NASA's Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex in California. This grid of 30 radar images, top left to lower right, reveals the two-lobed shape of the asteroid that rotates about once every five hours. Its largest lobe is about 610 meters across. On the list of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids, this space rock made its close approach to our fair planet on April 19, flying safely past at a distance of 1.8 million kilometers. That's over four times the distance from the Earth to the Moon. The asteroid was a faint and fast moving speck visible in backyard telescopes. Asteroid 2014 JO25 was discovered in May 2014 by the Catalina Sky Survey, a project of NASA's Near-Earth Objects Observations Program in collaboration with the University of Arizona.

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[neufer]

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PEEPS from outer space

[RocketRon]

Neato.
Radar works a long way past just local, doesn't it...

And its orbit is ??
Will we see it again....

[DL MARTIN]

CBC news reported that if this object hit Canada it would wipe out an area equivalent to Toronto - Ottawa - Montreal. That would have significant global repercussions. What are the chances of this happening?

[JohnD]

That looks just like 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko, Rosetta's duck-like comet!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZQy3-zXq-M

Should we forget our image of asteroids, or anything smaller than ?10kms in diameter as ovoid in shape?

John

[ygmarchi]

The shape reminds closely of comet 67/P.

For the rest, the resolution of attained of an object 1.8 million kms far, is just stunning.

[Sicnarf]

That is not a near miss, it is a near hit. Anything inside one AU is too close for comfort.

[neufer]

That is not a near miss, it is a near hit. Anything inside one AU is too close for comfort.

The phrase "near miss" should not to be confused with the phrases "nearly a miss" or "they nearly missed" which would imply a collision.

Synonymous phrases to "near miss" are "close call", or "nearly a collision".

[BDanielMayfield]

That is not a near miss, it is a near hit. Anything inside one AU is too close for comfort.

Then we're 'near missed' by by Mars, Venus, Mercury and heck, even the Sun almost every to several times each year. Get a grip on reality.

Bruce

[Chris Peterson]

CBC news reported that if this object hit Canada it would wipe out an area equivalent to Toronto - Ottawa - Montreal. That would have significant global repercussions. What are the chances of this happening?

With this object, on this pass? Zero. By some object at some time in the future? 100%.

[Chris Peterson]

That is not a near miss, it is a near hit. Anything inside one AU is too close for comfort.

Millions of such objects pass within that distance for any that actually collide. Indeed, there are millions of bodies that pass even closer than the Moon for any that actually collide.

[Chris Peterson]

Should we forget our image of asteroids, or anything smaller than ?10kms in diameter as ovoid in shape?

Our model for the typical example of such bodies is a rubble pile- a loosely bound group of boulders and rocks, often with a collision history (which probably explains the prevalence of lobes), and likely not very stable in terms of shape, as it loses or shifts material due to spin-up and tidal perturbations. Rather than seeing them as "ovoid", we should simply recognize "not typically spherical".

[Chris Peterson]

And its orbit is ??
Will we see it again....

Its orbital period is about three years. But we won't see it this close again for a few centuries.

[Chris Peterson]

The shape reminds closely of comet 67/P.

For the rest, the resolution of attained of an object 1.8 million kms far, is just stunning.

Worth noting is that this isn't a direct image, as we'd get optically. It's a computerized reconstruction- a shape model- based on illuminating the body with a complex radio signal (typically modulating pulse rate, frequency, and polarization) and then analyzing those characteristics, as well as Doppler components, in the echoed signal and generating a probabilistic image mathematically. It's a bit analogous to computed tomography (as with MRIs).

[neufer]

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CBC news reported that if this object hit Canada it would wipe out an area equivalent to Toronto - Ottawa - Montreal. That would have significant global repercussions. What are the chances of this happening?

If a thousand of these sorts of things were to pass by then there would be about a 1% that one of them would actually hit the Earth... but few of those chance hits would occur over densely populated areas.

[Chris Peterson]

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CBC news reported that if this object hit Canada it would wipe out an area equivalent to Toronto - Ottawa - Montreal. That would have significant global repercussions. What are the chances of this happening?

If a thousand of these sorts of things were to pass by then there would be about a 1% that one of them would actually hit the Earth... but few of those chance hits would occur over densely populated areas.

There are approximately 1000 asteroids larger than 1 km which are in Earth-crossing orbits, most of which have periods of just a few years. So an object this size crosses our orbit every few days, although it is much rarer for them to do so when we're near that spot in our orbit.

[jisles]

Here's the movie:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usPrwjyggEM

John

[ta152h0]

Two lobed ?, and this is the third one ? And another one had a little friend orbiting . Maybe we are looking at primordial planet building process, over a few bailion years.. Melt a little ice and refreeze it immediately after. Or not !

[ta152h0]

this is why I am fascinated by cameras turned on spacecraft ever since i saw the first one on a V2.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZxNbtb8tDA

[BDanielMayfield]

CBC news reported that if this object hit Canada it would wipe out an area equivalent to Toronto - Ottawa - Montreal. That would have significant global repercussions. What are the chances of this happening?

With this object, on this pass? Zero. By some object at some time in the future? 100%.

As even us puny humans will soon have the tools and skills needed to predict and then prevent such impacts your 100% prediction seems a bit overstated.

Bruce

[Chris Peterson]

CBC news reported that if this object hit Canada it would wipe out an area equivalent to Toronto - Ottawa - Montreal. That would have significant global repercussions. What are the chances of this happening?

With this object, on this pass? Zero. By some object at some time in the future? 100%.

As even us puny humans will soon have the tools and skills needed to predict and then prevent such impacts your 100% prediction seems a bit overstated.

There will be asteroids hitting the Earth long after there are any humans around to do anything about them. So yes, 100%.

[sytheblackwolfe]

I'm a very amateur astronomer, and making my first visit back here since 2015, but even so I'd agree with Chris. After all, don't we have several thousand "micro-collisions" with the dust and rock particles these objects shed each year, better known as meteor showers? Or am I way off base here?

[heehaw]

If this object broke in two, we'd have two half-asteroids!

[BDanielMayfield]

I'm a very amateur astronomer, and making my first visit back here since 2015, but even so I'd agree with Chris. After all, don't we have several thousand "micro-collisions" with the dust and rock particles these objects shed each year, better known as meteor showers? Or am I way off base here?

What we were discussing is large impactors causing mass casualties.

Bruce

[RocketRon]

[
What we were discussing is large impactors causing mass casualties.
Bruce

If you look at the large number of fairly large craters scattered around planet Earth, including some monster ones,
then the likelyhood of more such impacts is 100%, as stated.
But when is another matter, probability is a rather random event.

As for man having the 'tools' to do anything about it, that is also another matter.
Wasn't there a conference just recently about how to deal with such things. ?
Did they actually come to any resolution ?
Any committee involved in this will likely still be discussing as we get hit for six. !!

And, if we only get a few days notice of such an impact occurring, thats not enough time to organise anything,
except maybe a mass panic ?