Starship Asterisk*

Chris Peterson wrote:
Statistics suggest this comet is not in an escape orbit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics wrote:
<<"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point. Mark Twain popularized the saying in "Chapters from My Autobiography", published in the North American Review in 1906. "Figures often beguile me," he wrote, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'" However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death.

The earliest instance of the phrase found in print dates to a letter written June 8, 1891, published June 13, 1891: "Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics. It is on statistics and on the absence of statistics that the advocate of national pensions relies....." Later, in October 1891, as a query in Notes and Queries, the pseudonymous questioner, signing as "St Swithin", asked for the originator of the phrase, indicating common usage even at that date. The pseudonym has been attributed to Eliza Gutch.

The phrase, as noted by Robert Giffen in 1892, was a variation on a phrase about three types of unreliable witnesses, a liar, a damned liar, and an expert: "An old jest runs to the effect that there are three degrees of comparison among liars. There are liars, there are outrageous liars, and there are scientific experts. This has lately been adapted to throw dirt upon statistics. There are three degrees of comparison, it is said, in lying. There are lies, there are outrageous lies, and there are statistics."

That phrase can be found in Nature in 1885, page 74 Nov 26, 1885: :"A well-known lawyer, now a judge, once grouped witnesses into three classes: simple liars, damned liars, and experts." A minute of the X Club meeting held on 5 December 1885, recorded by Thomas Henry Huxley, noted "Talked politics, scandal, and the three classes of witnesses—liars, d—d liars, and experts." Quoted in 1900 in Leonard Huxley's The Life and Letters of Thomas Henry Huxley.

L. McNish wrote:I'm pretty sure Anthony Barreiro got it right. Given the angle the comet's tail makes with the horizon, I'd say it's a view to the west-southwest after sunset on approximately Christmas Eve 1680 (Gregorian calendar). The only time the Moon was to the "left" of the 1680 comet was after perihelion, and if it was just out of frame to the top left, this would account for the lighting and various shadow angles on the ground. The bright stars in the painting however, do not seem to agree with my simulation so I would suggest these were added later against the red sky. Both Venus and Mercury would also have been visible rising on the left from the horizon up towards the Moon, but these are also missing from the painting (also perhaps out of frame).

A very interesting picture by an artist of scientists performing real science outdoors at a special time of year with two churches to guide us to the date, time and location.

Larry McNish Calgary Centre of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada

Nitpicker wrote:
Looking at the observers' shadows, they do not appear to have a particularly consistent angle about them. And I also see people holding lanterns. So, it is also possible that the exact date is uncertain and the Moon was elsewhere, or the Moon was simply not full enough to be casting much light.

neufer wrote:The artist is on the bridge among the people (not looking down from above) and perspective makes parallel lunar light beams radiate out.