Weather!

[owlice]

I know. And Boötes doesn't look all that much like a cat either.

Yeah, what is that thing, anyway?

My mother's nickname was Boots. I spent a good part of today going through stuff at her house and came across an August 30, 1980 Science News; the cover reads Ground-based Astronomy's Future: Uphill?, and the related article's title is Will Astronomy Go into Orbit?, which starts:

"Astronomy has been very exciting in the last two decades," Joseph Wampler of the Lick Observatory reminded the recent meeting in Tucson of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. "If you think the '60s and '70s were exciting, you ain't seen nothing yet."

Also in today's tonnage was a clipping from the March 5, 1987 Washington Post: Supernova Stabilizes Puzzlingly: Birth of Black Hole Seen as Possibility.

The supernova discovered Feb. 24, the closest seen from Earth in 383 years, has stabilized mysteriously in the last few days and is not increasing in brightness as fast as predicted, astronomers at several Southern Hemisphere observatories have reported.

As a result, astronomers are not sure whether the explosion of the dying star has peaked and will fade or wil flare to even greater brilliance.

Astronomers also say that if the star is big enough, they could be witnessing the birth of a black hole.

[neufer]

I know. And Boötes doesn't look all that much like a cat either.

Yeah, what is that thing, anyway?

Dora & Boots the Monkey actually sound quite a lot like you & I
(except, of course, for Boots being "light weight and easy to carry"):

<<Boots the Monkey, whom Dora met one day in the forest, is her best friend. He is friendly and enthusiastic, and usually wears nothing but his beloved red boots, hence his name. Boots is present with Dora on most of her adventures, and he helps her solve clues and puzzles. He also loves baseball and enjoys riding Rojo the fire truck. Boots performs a series of acrobatic flips, somersaults, and cartwheels along the way to their destination. His light weight also makes him easy to carry, even for Dora. Without guidance from Dora, the viewer, or another character, Boots is quick to take his own, often dangerous or dead-ended, route. Dora often acts as the voice of reason. Boots "loves" many things. In one episode, he would say many times "I love riddles. Call me 'Mr. Riddles'" or "I love nuts, I love chocolate and I love my ball". Boots' vocabulary is limited but steadily increasing.>>

My mother's nickname was Boots.

Do you know why?

I spent a good part of today going through stuff at her house and came across an August 30, 1980 Science News; the cover reads Ground-based Astronomy's Future: Uphill?, and the related article's title is Will Astronomy Go into Orbit?, which starts:

"Astronomy has been very exciting in the last two decades," Joseph Wampler of the Lick Observatory reminded the recent meeting in Tucson of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. "If you think the '60s and '70s were exciting, you ain't seen nothing yet."

Wampler = Whitman's Sampler? What's he doing there?
Lick Observatory is associated with Ghirardelli Chocolate.
http://asterisk.apod.com/vie ... 480#p99430

Also in today's tonnage was a clipping from the March 5, 1987 Washington Post:
Supernova Stabilizes Puzzlingly: Birth of Black Hole Seen as Possibility.

The supernova discovered Feb. 24, the closest seen from Earth in 383 years, has stabilized mysteriously in the last few days and is not increasing in brightness as fast as predicted, astronomers at several Southern Hemisphere observatories have reported. As a result, astronomers are not sure whether the explosion of the dying star has peaked and will fade or wil flare to even greater brilliance. Astronomers also say that if the star is big enough, they could be witnessing the birth of a black hole.

<<SN 1987A appears to be a core-collapse supernova, which should result in a neutron star. Since the supernova first became visible, astronomers have been searching for the collapsed core but have not detected it. The Hubble Space Telescope has taken images of the supernova regularly since August 1990. The images show no evidence of a neutron star. Three possibilities for the 'missing' neutron star are being considered.

• The first is that the neutron star is enshrouded in dense dust clouds so that it cannot be seen.
  
  The second is that large amounts of material fell back on the neutron star, so that it further collapsed into a black hole.
  
  The third possibility is that the collapsed core became a quark star.>>

http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap070107.html
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap060125.html

[owlice]

:: had to recover her composure before replying ::

Neufer!!

... is friendly and enthusiastic, and usually wears nothing but his beloved red boots

[owlice]

:: had to recover her composure again ::

nuefer, thank you for the explanation; much much oh, so very much enjoyed appreciated!

:: picks carefully through neufer's post, lest she need another time-out ::

My mother's nickname was Boots.

Do you know why?

I know what my grandmother told me; I presume it's true. She (my Nana) had left my mother with a babysitter one time when my mother was a baby, and the babysitter (a grown woman in her own home, I believe) couldn't remember my mother's name, so called her "Boots." I had the impression when I first heard this story that the name somehow came from a cat or was used because Boots is a common cat name -- kind of a default name for any cat which has mittens (hence another default name) -- but I don't know whether that impression came from my grandmother or I invented it. My grandmother was amused and called/referred to my mother "Boots" or "Bootsie" for the rest of her (my grandmother's) life, as did my grandfather. I don't recall hearing my grandparents refer to my mother by her given name, though I'm sure they must have.

Lick Observatory is associated with Ghirardelli Chocolate.
http://asterisk.apod.com/vie ... 480#p99430

Oh, that was interesting; thanks! Did not know that. I love Ghirardelli chocolate (and Ghirardelli Square); that is the "San Francisco treat" in my book!

Also in today's tonnage was a clipping from the March 5, 1987 Washington Post:
Supernova Stabilizes Puzzlingly: Birth of Black Hole Seen as Possibility.

<<SN 1987A appears to be a core-collapse supernova, which should result in a neutron star. Since the supernova first became visible, astronomers have been searching for the collapsed core but have not detected it. The Hubble Space Telescope has taken images of the supernova regularly since August 1990. The images show no evidence of a neutron star.

http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap070107.html
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap060125.html

Thanks! Also all very interesting!

I have no idea why that particular article was clipped and saved; so far as I know, my mother had no great interest in astronomy, though the couple of books in her childhood bedroom, which my brothers and I used when we stayed at our grandparents, were astronomy books. (Most of the books were stored elsewhere in the house.)

Oh, I don't know whether I'd mentioned this, but of the books in my grandparent's house was a set of Shakespeare's (of Stratford) writings, the plays all individually bound and clad in dark red, the poetry together in one (maybe more?) volume, printed in 1901. It was from these that I first memorized Hamlet's soliloquy and a few other famous lines. The set is boxed now in my mother's attic, but will be finding space on my bookshelves (probably a new bookshelf, since all of mine are full!) soon. I thought of you when I came across them. These would have gone to a used bookstore in the 70s had I not insisted on keeping them when my grandmother moved from my mother's childhood home into an apartment.

I also claimed the Oz books.

[Ann]

Fascinating stuff about your mom, Owlice.

Speaking about weather, yesterday we got 66 millimeters of rain over Malmö, Sweden, where I live, and that was wet, I can tell you. We got a lot of thunder and lightning, too. Good thing the summer has been so dry almost up till now, because today Malmö looked almost perfectly normal again, with very few signs of recent heavy rains. All that water just got soaked up by the ground. On the other hand, the weather service promises us a lot more rain the coming week, and I don't know if I like that!

Ann

[neufer]

of the books in my grandparent's house was a set of Shakespeare's (of Stratford) writings,
the plays all individually bound and clad in dark red,

What a coincidence! My feet are individually bound and clad in dark red too!

the poetry together in one (maybe more?) volume, printed in 1901.
It was from these that I first memorized Hamlet's soliloquy...

You should have memorized Hamlet's soliloquy
in the original Danish:

>>At VÆRE eller ikke VÆRE<<
= >>TO BE or not TO BE<< [/size]

The set is boxed now in my mother's attic, but will be finding space on my bookshelves (probably a new bookshelf, since all of mine are full!) soon. I thought of you when I came across them. These would have gone to a used bookstore in the 70s had I not insisted on keeping them when my grandmother moved from my mother's childhood home into an apartment.

I also claimed the Oz books.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
If you look up the word *WIZARD* you will be informed
that the origin of the word is a mystery. HowEVER...

An Atbash cipher for the Roman alphabet would be as follows:

Code: Select all

Plain:   *wizard*  a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z
Cipher:  *DRAZIW*  Z Y X W V U T S R Q P O N M L K J I H G F E D C B A

[owlice]

What a coincidence! My feet are individually bound and clad in dark red too!

:: must go find the current location of her composure so that she can reclaim it ::

[owlice]

Ann, with so much rain, it doesn't just run off? We get flash floods even if the ground is really dry when a lot of rain gets dumped at once. One reason that I couldn't take my normal route to work last Thursday was a creek which cuts through DC had risen and overrun its banks and the road. (This is the creek with the original "water gate" that gives the more famous Watergate its name. The water gate is at mile 0 of the now-defunct C&O Canal, which is now parkland.)

Tonight it's perfectly clear; not a cloud in the sky. Figures that it would clear up so nicely after, not for the Perseids!

[Ann]

Well, we were lucky that it had rained a bit before we got the torrential rain, so the ground was sufficiently moistened to absorb the rain. Also, the rain started slowly, and as the top layer of the ground was moist and the deeper layers were bone dry, the rain managed to seep slowly into the ground, and the water was absorbed.

Also, we are very lucky that we don't have any streams or rivers near Malmö, so there are no natural waterways that can get flooded.

But guess what? Today we got another forty millimeters of rain, and the day isn't even over! I don't know what it looks like in Malmö today, because I work in a town a hundred kilometers north of it.

What we are experiencing is a very little brother of the flooding in Pakistan. They got their severe rains because huge low pressure regions were generated where the scorching air from the heatwave over Russia met the much, much cooler air over the mountains in northern Pakistan. Here in Malmö we are close enough to the Atlantic that the temperature difference between the air that we get and the air over Russia is great enough to generate the sort of torrential rain that we aren't used to.

Ann

[owlice]

We're under a flood watch. A thunderstorm started here within the past hour; we're expecting 2-3 inches of rain today.

[Ann]

Today it's raining. It isn't as bad as as it was yesterday, but the ground can't take that much more water now.

They said on the TV news that most of the wheat and barley harvest will be destroyed because of the rain.

Ann

[owlice]

Three-4.5 inches of rain so far here, depending on where in the metro area one is. It's not raining now, but more is expected this afternoon.

Ann, that's sad about the wheat and barley.

[oldnewideas]

Normal prevailing winds from the west in northern Ontario seem to have been replaced by southerlies .. which I assume is the planet trying to equalize temperature extremes due to global warming.

[neufer]

Normal prevailing winds from the west in northern Ontario seem to have been replaced by southerlies ..
which I assume is the planet trying to equalize temperature extremes due to global warming.

Canadian/Russian westerlies are driven by a cold frozen Arctic Ocean (which no longer exists).

Global Temperature Anomalies, July 2010
Posted August 18, 2010

<<In early August 2010, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) released its analysis of global temperatures for the previous month. In July 2010, GISS found, the global average temperature was 0.55 degrees Celsius (almost 1 degree Fahrenheit) warmer than climatology—defined as average temperatures for the same month from 1951 to 1980. July 2010 was practically in a three-way tie for the warmest July on record, tied with July 1998 and July 2005.

Global Temperature Anomalies, July 2010

---

This color-coded map shows global surface temperature anomalies for July 2010 compared to average temperatures for the same time of year from 1951 to 1980. Above-normal temperatures appear in shades of red, and below-normal temperatures appear in shades of blue. Red-hued Greenland, for example, experienced above-normal temperatures while the blue-hued Pacific Northwest experienced below-normal temperatures. Gray patches indicate areas of insufficient data.

The GISS analysis found temperatures more than 5 degrees Celsius (about 10 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than climatology in the region of Eastern Europe, including Moscow, and in Eastern Asia. (Both Moscow and Eastern Siberia faced severe wildfires and smoke in July 2010.) The eastern United States also experienced unusual heat, although not as severe as the heat in parts of Eurasia.

Substantial areas, however, showed below-normal temperatures, including central Asia and southern South America. Parts of South America suffered through sub-freezing temperatures and heavy snow, leading to hundreds of cold-related deaths, ruined crops and livestock, and contaminated rivers after millions of fish froze, said news reports. Temperatures were below normal across much of East Antarctica, although they were well above normal over the Antarctic Peninsula.

In the GISS analysis, the 12-month running mean temperature reached a record high in the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2010. The GISS release pointed out, however, that the nascent La Niña was moderately strong, would probably strengthen, and would likely affect temperatures throughout the remainder of 2010. (Note the long band of cooler-than-normal water over the Eastern Pacific, immediately off South America, characteristic of La Niña.) Just as a strong El Niño tends to nudge global temperatures upwards, La Niña can have the opposite effect. GISS anticipated that La Niña would cause the 12-month running mean temperature to decline over the rest of the year.

The extreme weather events in Russia and Pakistan have fueled speculation about the role of climate. The GISS release stated, “The location of extreme events in any particular month depends on specific weather patterns, which are unpredictable except on short time scales. The weather patterns next summer will be different than this year. It could be a cooler than average summer in Moscow in 2011.” The GISS release went on to explain, however, that global warming does affect the probability and intensity of extreme events. Climate can drive precipitation because temperature affects the amount of water vapor that air can carry. Likewise, in areas experiencing drought, global warming can increase temperature extremes that exacerbate wildfires.>>

[BMAONE23]

I'n not so sure about that

"Cold Frozen Arctic Ocean (which no longer exists)"

Looking at the North Pole Environmental Observatory site The floating POPS-13 bouy is at 85.34N and is registering temp of -8.8c and the PAWS bouy is at 87N and is at 0.7c Seems cold enough to me.
Per the Chryosphere today site, this side by side comparison indicates much more ice than the Historic low in 2007 and per this Hi Res image Neither NW nor NE passages are open (ice free). Given the Ice level is still lower than the Mean (orange line) it is still much greater than any of the last 3 years.
It has been so cold up there this year in fact that the daily temps have been below the statistical average (bell curve) for most of the entire summer season, so cold in fact that the typical June/July melt ponding has refroze

[Beyond]

I'n not so sure about that

"Cold Frozen Arctic Ocean (which no longer exists)"

Looking at the North Pole Environmental Observatory site The floating POPS-13 bouy is at 85.34N and is registering temp of -8.8c and the PAWS bouy is at 87N and is at 0.7c Seems cold enough to me.
Per the Chryosphere today site, this side by side comparison indicates much more ice than the Historic low in 2007 and per this Hi Res image Neither NW nor NE passages are open (ice free). Given the Ice level is still lower than the Mean (orange line) it is still much greater than any of the last 3 years.
It has been so cold up there this year in fact that the daily temps have been below the statistical average (bell curve) for most of the entire summer season, so cold in fact that the typical June/July melt ponding has refroze

Uh-oh, that sounds like colder weather(read that more snow)for the North-East this year. Oh my aching aches

[neufer]

I'n not so sure about that

"Cold Frozen Arctic Ocean (which no longer exists)"

Looking at the North Pole Environmental Observatory site The floating POPS-13 bouy is at 85.34N and is registering temp of -8.8c and the PAWS bouy is at 87N and is at 0.7c Seems cold enough to me.

Too bad that most polar bears can't swim all the way up to 87º N.

Per the Chryosphere today site, this side by side comparison indicates much more ice than the Historic low in 2007 and per this Hi Res image Neither NW nor NE passages are open (ice free). Given the Ice level is still lower than the Mean (orange line) it is still much greater than any of the last 3 years.

Wow!!! More ice than the Historic low in 2007!!

But will it be more than the long term (i.e., global warming) trend line predicts?

Mean September sea ice extent in millions of km[sup]2[/sup] for the northern hemisphere since 1978 (NSIDC). [b][color=#0000FF]The blue line indicate the decreasing trend in September ice extent[/color][/b].

---

It has been so cold up there this year in fact that the daily temps have been below the statistical average (bell curve) for most of the entire summer season, so cold in fact that the typical June/July melt ponding has refroze

Too bad that most polar bears can't swim all the way up to 80º N.

Sea Surface Temperature anomalies [b][color=#FF0000]TODAY[/color][/b].

---

[BMAONE23]

Polar bears are efficient swimmers, for such large animals.
While in the water they paddle with their front feet, and use the hind feet as rudders. They can swim at a speeds of 4-6 mph and paddle non-stop for 100 miles. Have been seen swimming several hundred miles from the nearest ice or land. While swimming, they keep their eyes open, their nostrils shut and their ears flattened to their heads. Polar bears can stay under up to 2 minutes. They are also capable of leaping out of the water 7'-8' feet from a swimming start. They have been seen catching seals that way.

According to This Map of the polar bear habitat, most of their current range is still within reach by swimming. There are many loose bergs floating in the water between coastal areas and the hard ice pack hunting grounds. Bears can easily cover the water areas from the coastal land to the ice pack even if it is 200 miles away. The loose icebergs are utilized as resting rafts in the 2 to 3 day trip. For a Polar bear this is a fairly easy trip.

Polar Bear populations have significantly risen over the last 60 years
With hunting no longer allowed, bear populations have increased 4-5 times and have been estimated to have risen to 27,000 this year from a low of 5000 in the 50’s.

[rstevenson]

Or, from a source I would think is more reliable than wattsupwiththat...

Polar Bears Count
Let's talk about the numbers. Scientists have only rough estimates of historical polar bear populations. But we do know that in the 1960s, their numbers dropped sharply due to overhunting. Populations rebounded after restrictions on polar bear harvests went into effect in the1970s. It was a conservation success story.

Current threat. The current threat to polar bears is entirely different, and more dire. Today's polar bears are facing rapid loss of the sea ice where they hunt, breed, and, in some cases, den. Changes in their distribution or numbers affect the entire Arctic ecosystem.

Results from long-term studies show:

* Canada's Western Hudson Bay population: 22% decline since the early 1980s, directly related to earlier ice break-up on Hudson Bay

* Southern Beaufort Sea population along the northern coast of Alaska and western Canada: decline in cub survival rates and in the weight and skull size of adult males; similar observations made in Western Hudson Bay prior to its population drop

* Baffin Bay population, shared by Greenland and Canada: at risk from both significant sea ice loss and substantial over-harvesting

* Chukchi Sea population, shared by Russia and the United States: declining due to illegal harvest in Russia and one of the highest rates of sea ice loss in the Arctic

Current Trends of the World’s 19 Subpopulations in 2009

[ I can't get the table to line up here, so have a look at the linked page for the details ]
[ it shows... 8 declining, 3 stable, 1 increasing ]

This compares with five declining, five stable, and two increasing subpopulations in 2005 (plus seven data deficient), so there's clearly a downward trend.

Rob

[neufer]

According to This Map of the polar bear habitat, most of their current range is still within reach by swimming. There are many loose bergs floating in the water between coastal areas and the hard ice pack hunting grounds. Bears can easily cover the water areas from the coastal land to the ice pack even if it is 200 miles away. The loose icebergs are utilized as resting rafts in the 2 to 3 day trip. For a Polar bear this is a fairly easy trip.

[size=150]Sea Surface Temperature anomalies [b][color=#FF0000]TODAY[/color][/b][/size].

---

[size=200][color=#80BF00]Polar bear range map[/color][/size]

---

[bystander]

Or, from a source I would think is more reliable than wattsupwiththat...

I'm not sure why you would say PBI is more reliable (i'm not saying they are not), but they clearly have the their own axe to grind. I do agree, however, anything from wattsupwiththat should be verified from an independent source (just the name induces skepticism in me).

I'm just saying, let's not let this devolve into a statistics war like http://asterisk.apod.com/vie ... =9&t=16778

Thanks

[owlice]

Oh, neufer... those pictures are painful. Poor bears.

[BMAONE23]

Images of Polar Bears perching on bergs is a gut renching site for us and plays on our sensibilities WRT their treatment but keep in mind, It is what they do best. They will swim for 80 to 100 miles then perch themselves on any piece of floating ice to rest before swimming another 100. They also use the same tactic when searching out hunting grounds. They will climb on a tall iceberg and take a good look around (birds eye view) before deciding on where might be best place to hunt (scenting the air for seal breathing holes), or to search out the closest pack ice or even the next tall berg. I think that the image of the lone bear is fantastic. It proves that they still have ice that they can perch on and be abe to swim to while retaining the strenget TO climb up on it. The other image with 2 bears on it is even better. It shows a mother teaching her cub how to swim great distances and what kind of ice to look for to rest on and to scout from. What a good mother.
These types of images are often used to pull at our heart strings, "the Poor Bears" but what they really display is the beauty of these creatures in their natural habitat and how they interact with it.

[neufer]

Images of Polar Bears perching on bergs is a gut renching site for us and plays on our sensibilities WRT their treatment but keep in mind, It is what they do best. They will swim for 80 to 100 miles then perch themselves on any piece of floating ice to rest before swimming another 100.

How many folks would like to see BMAONE23 swim for 80 to 100 miles then
perch himself on any piece of floating ice to rest before swimming another 100 miles

[Chris Peterson]

These types of images are often used to pull at our heart strings, "the Poor Bears" but what they really display is the beauty of these creatures in their natural habitat and how they interact with it.

No, these pictures, by and large, are showing an unnatural situation. Polar bears can swim large distances and perch on tiny bits of ice. But that does not mean they should. Like any animal, the more that conditions push them towards their limits, the more stress they are under, and the more likely they are to be unhealthy, reproductively unsuccessful, and short-lived. With the increasing loss of arctic ice, these animals are under greater stress, forced to swim longer, more often, in search of food. In terms of the health of the species, this is not a good situation. I wouldn't use "beautiful" to describe images of animals simply coping with difficult changes in their environment- changes that could lead to their extinction (regionally, if not globally) in fairly short order.