APOD and General Astronomy Discussion Forum
https://asterisk.apod.com/
ditto.Chris Peterson wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:33 pm Some people need to get a life, or build their own apod site, if they can't deal with an editor tossing out something of general scientific interest, not just astronomy, a few times a year.
Okay, my memory may have fooled me on this one, when I first read about the salmon parasite, I thought it was describing a virus,Chris Peterson wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:19 pmA virus is a sort of parasite. It depends entirely on other organisms in order to propagate itself. So it seems like something that would have only evolved after the more complex organisms it depends upon. Either evolving from those organisms, or from scratch. I can believe a living microorganism might arrive on a meteorite, but a virus seems very unlikely (unless it is from someplace like Mars, already hosting a nucleic acid based system of life).
MarkBour wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:19 am (Posted June 02, 2020)
I'll list the facts, as best we know them today from the current world-wide collective reporting. As of the date of this post, about 376,000 people have died from the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current rate is about 4000 deaths per day at this time. Of course, only time will tell if the forecast in the APOD caption will be correct.
MarkBour wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:29 pm (Posted June 29, 2020)
All of the following numbers are roughly round numbers at this point. Worldwide, 10 million confirmed cases, 500 thousand deaths. (The U.S. having a 25% share of both totals, with 2.5 million cases and 125 thousand deaths.) These reported amounts have been consistent in that the number of deaths is around 5% of confirmed cases for a while now.
According to the reporting agencies I am aware of -- similar to the list in my previous post: Worldometers; Johns Hopkins; the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) -- listing only U.S. data; the World Health Organization (WHO); and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) -- the world has passed another unwanted milestone of 2 million deaths from the Sars-CoV-2 virus pictured in the APOD.
Turns out epidemiologists generally know their stuff, and that their models are pretty good. The tricky thing with epidemiology models, compared with many other scientific models, is the huge social factor. The output of the models depends so much on the behavior of people, and predicting that is nearly impossible. Except maybe in the U.S., where we can assume a high percentage will act stupidly.MarkBour wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:41 am An update on this topic.
MarkBour wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:19 am (Posted June 02, 2020)
I'll list the facts, as best we know them today from the current world-wide collective reporting. As of the date of this post, about 376,000 people have died from the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current rate is about 4000 deaths per day at this time. Of course, only time will tell if the forecast in the APOD caption will be correct.MarkBour wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:29 pm (Posted June 29, 2020)
All of the following numbers are roughly round numbers at this point. Worldwide, 10 million confirmed cases, 500 thousand deaths. (The U.S. having a 25% share of both totals, with 2.5 million cases and 125 thousand deaths.) These reported amounts have been consistent in that the number of deaths is around 5% of confirmed cases for a while now.According to the reporting agencies I am aware of -- similar to the list in my previous post: Worldometers; Johns Hopkins; the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) -- listing only U.S. data; the World Health Organization (WHO); and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) -- the world has passed another unwanted milestone of 2 million deaths from the Sars-CoV-2 virus pictured in the APOD.
(Posted January 16, 2021)
Global Total Cases: 92,506,811 . . . . . Global Total Deaths: 2,001,773 . . . . . . . . . . <== Numbers from the WHO
So, I guess time has told. The APOD editors were correct to predict very early on, that "millions will die".
On the hopeful side, a number of vaccines that appear capable of altering the trajectory of this battle have been developed. On the concerning side, we have seen some variant strains appearing around the world, which may complicate the battle. However, one full month after the U.S. FDA, the U.K. MHRA, and many other national administrations have approved and released vaccines, the case and death curves have not yet shown any signs of bowing to our medical response. The current daily worldwide death rate is now around 15,000, dwarfing the 4,000 per day I reported in the post of last June. The worldwide total charts from the W.H.O. are unflinchingly smooth --
Capture.png
W.H.O. webpage capture, click to enlarge
The IHME is projecting that with rapid vaccine rollout, this picture will begin to improve by March, but nevertheless, they also project that the global death toll will reach 3 million by May, 2021.
A couple of other measurements. The deaths versus cases ratio has improved over time, dropping from 5% early on, to just over 2% now. It's hard to say whether this is anything other than the facts of data collection over the course of the pandemic, or if it is becoming less deadly in some real sense. Also, for those of us in the U.S., we have continued to hold our market share of cases as the months have passed, with about 25% of the world total. Our share of deaths has slid some, from 25% earlier, to about 20% now. Still, the carnage here is staggering, we have joined the exclusive 1000-club of countries who have had more than 1 person in 1000 of their population die.
The little school I teach at had just opened back then, and the students were excused for three months, and then did outside classes. So I make sure that our current students represent the second time that the school has had to respond to a global pandemic. They will be a part of history in the same way as the people from 1918 are. (Happily, none of the current students have asked why the kids back then couldn't just work from home on their computers!)orin stepanek wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:53 pm This pandemic reminds me of this one! https://www.history.com/topics/world-wa ... u-pandemic My Dad's oldest brother died from it! I remember my Father telling me about it when I was a little kid! This outbreak may be as bad or worse; but medicine has come a long way's; So the outcome should hopefully be better; but use good hygiene while we are waiting for the shots! wear your masks and distancing!
Chris Peterson wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 4:33 pmThe little school I teach at had just opened back then, and the students were excused for three months, and then did outside classes. So I make sure that our current students represent the second time that the school has had to respond to a global pandemic. They will be a part of history in the same way as the people from 1918 are. (Happily, none of the current students have asked why the kids back then couldn't just work from home on their computers!)orin stepanek wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:53 pm This pandemic reminds me of this one! https://www.history.com/topics/world-wa ... u-pandemic My Dad's oldest brother died from it! I remember my Father telling me about it when I was a little kid! This outbreak may be as bad or worse; but medicine has come a long way's; So the outcome should hopefully be better; but use good hygiene while we are waiting for the shots! wear your masks and distancing!
Probably the closest thing back then was an abacus! 