Starship Asterisk*

León wrote:
One inside the other outside soon to also be inside, just as timely globular cluster was incorporated by the Milky Way for Small Magellanic Cloud is the destination set, will be trapped in the same way that the octopus embraces the rock.

• O B A F G K M (R N S):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus wrote:
<<Paul Allen the Octopus or Paul Oktopus is a common octopus, used as an oracle to predict the results of German international football matches.

Paul is presented with two boxes, each containing food, and each marked with the flag of a national team. He is reported to have correctly chosen the box with the flag of the winning team in five of Germany's six Euro 2008 matches, and in each of their first six matches in the 2010 FIFA World Cup.

Click to play embedded YouTube video.

Paul was hatched from an egg at the Sea Life Centre in Weymouth, England, and now lives in a tank at Sea Life Oberhausen, a commercial attraction in Germany. Paul's name was taken from the title of a poem by the German children's writer Boy Lornsen: Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus. According to Sea Life's entertainment director, Daniel Fey, Paul demonstrated his intelligence early in life:

• "There was something about the way he looked at our visitors when they came close to the tank. It was so unusual, so we tried to find out what his special talents were."

During the lead-up to German international football matches, Paul the Octopus was presented with two similar clear plastic boxes, each one containing food such as a mussel or an oyster. Both containers were marked with a flag; one with the flag of Germany, and the other with the flag of Germany's opponent. In each instance, Paul's first choice of the two boxes was interpreted as being the animal's prediction as to which would be the victorious team. Paul was used during UEFA Euro 2008 to correctly predict the outcome of 80% of Germany's matches, but failed to predict their defeat to Spain in the championship's final.

2010 FIFA World Cup

Paul has predicted the winners of each of the six 2010 FIFA World Cup matches the German team has played so far, against Australia, Serbia (which Germany lost), Ghana, England, Argentina, and Spain. His prediction that Argentina would lose prompted Argentine chef Nicolas Bedorrou to post an Octopus recipe on Facebook.

• "There are always people who want to eat our octopus but he is not shy and we are here to protect him as well. He will survive."
  —Oliver Walenciak (Paul's keeper)

Paul correctly predicted the outcome of the semi finals, by choosing the box marked with the Spanish flag. German supporters drew hope from his incorrect choice for the Germany versus Spain match in the UEFA Euro 2008, but this time they were disappointed and the result led to death threats. Since the latest prediction, Germans are no longer praising their octopus, instead calling for Paul to be cooked and eaten. The Spanish Industry Minister Miguel Sebastian called for Paul to be given safe haven in Spain, while prime minister Jose Zapatero jokingly offered to send an official state protection team to prevent the octopus from being eaten by angry Germans.

Statistical analysis

Paul's accurate predictions for the 2010 World Cup, broadcast live by German news channel NTV, have endowed him with celebrity status. Based on the Binomial Distribution in probability theory, if the prediction exercise was not biased, the probability of at least 11 correct prediction in 12 matches would be approximately 0.3%. However, the octopus chose Germany as the winning team 9 out of 12 times, which is significantly different from a 50% chance of picking each box. If the exercise was biased in favor of picking Germany, then the octopus would have a better chance at success since Germany was the favorite in many of these matches.

The German flag.

According to Janet Voight at the Chicago Field Museum of Natural History there is no evidence that the Octopus vulgaris has colour vision, and it is unlikely that colour played a part in Paul's preferences. However, Shelagh Malham of Bangor University, said octopuses can distinguish brightness, and are drawn to bold horizontal shapes.

Paul Connolly of the Daily Mail speculated that Paul may have chosen the German, Spanish and Serbian flags because each of them display horizontal shapes. And he may have picked between the flags because the Spanish flag has a broader horizontal stripe than the German flag, and the Serbian flag is more vivid than the German flag.

Volker Miske, an expert at the University of Greifswald and mentor of the German "Coleoidea Archive" sees minor chemical differences as background of Paul's decisions. He might be able to distinguish minor differences of the size of the mussels or chemical traces of the flags colors via the scent sensors in his arms. Even minor differences in the closure of the boxes might be significant as well.>>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octopus wrote:
<<Octopuses are highly intelligent, probably more intelligent than any other order of invertebrates. The exact extent of their intelligence and learning capability is much debated among biologists, but maze and problem-solving experiments have shown that they do have both short- and long-term memory. Their short lifespans limit the amount they can ultimately learn. There has been much speculation to the effect that almost all octopus behaviors are independently learned rather than instinct-based, although this remains largely unproven. They learn almost no behaviors from their parents, with whom young octopuses have very little contact.

In laboratory experiments, octopuses can be readily trained to distinguish between different shapes and patterns. They have been reported to practice observational learning, although the validity of these findings is widely contested on a number of grounds. Octopuses have also been observed in what some have described as play: repeatedly releasing bottles or toys into a circular current in their aquariums and then catching them. Octopuses often break out of their aquariums and sometimes into others in search of food. They have even boarded fishing boats and opened holds to eat crabs.>>

supamario wrote:Great photo, Alex.
You could spend a few moments and imagine this could be taken from a probe that landed on a distant rocky/water planet light years away from earth.
The Sun being the yellowish star below Alpha Centauri.
Mario

starman wrote:... or if you adopt the "English" version, Alpha Centaurus...

Incidentally, you can find out where the Sun would appear from any point in space by reversing the sign of, and adding 12h right ascension, to the coordinates of your chosen star. So, if you wanted the Sun to appear "just below alpha Cen" - let's say that the position you want is 14h RA and -65° declination - the star you'd be viewing it from would be at an earthly position of 2h RA, 65°North. You can also do this for any other star, though it does involve some lovely maths! From alpha Centauri, the Sun would appear in Cassiopeia, as an addition to the familiar W!

León wrote:
One inside the other outside soon to also be inside, just as timely globular cluster was incorporated by the Milky Way for Small Magellanic Cloud is the destination set, will be trapped in the same way that the octopus embraces the rock.

• O B A F G K M (R N S):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus wrote:
<<Paul the Octopus's accurate choices for the 2010 World Cup, broadcast live by German news channel NTV, have endowed him with celebrity status. Paul predicted the winners of each of the seven 2010 FIFA World Cup matches that the German team played, against Australia, Serbia, Ghana, England, Argentina, Spain, and Uruguay. Paul correctly predicted the outcome of the semi-final, by choosing the food in the box marked with the Spanish flag. The prediction led to death threats as German fans called for Paul to be cooked and eaten. In response, Spanish prime minister Jose Zapatero offered to send Paul official state protection. Paul maintained a 100% accurate record during the tournament by correctly predicting Spain's victory over the Netherlands in the final.

Paul picks Spain over the Netherlands on July 9, 2010.

---

The probability of Paul's FIFA feat is 0.12%. Given Paul was only given 2 choices, a conservative estimate remains p = 0.0039. Of course there were many public predictions about World Cup results using quirky methods that were wrong and hence did not get international attention. Paul started to receive international recognition after he correctly predicted Germany's win over England, and after that he only made four correct predictions. The chance of those final four predictions being correct is 6.25% (odds 15/1).

Some other oracles did not fare so well in the World Cup. The animals at the Chemnitz Zoo in Germany were wrong on all of Germany's group-stage games, with Leon the porcupine picking Australia, Petty the pygmy hippopotamus spurning Serbia's apple-topped pile of hay, and Anton the tamarin eating a raisin representing Ghana. Mani the Parakeet of Singapore picked the Netherlands to win the final.>>

supamario wrote:Great photo, Alex.
You could spend a few moments and imagine this could be taken from a probe that landed on a distant rocky/water planet light years away from earth.
The Sun being the yellowish star below Alpha Centauri.
Mario