Weather!

[geckzilla]

http://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefi ... iefing.pdf

[bystander]

Hurricane Matthew Heralds the Second Coming of Christ?

[Chris Peterson]

First snow this morning. Not much- just a few millimeters, but enough that somebody won the local pool for today's date. A little below freezing at dawn, but shirtsleeve warm by the middle of the day. This is Colorado in autumn: 7:30 AM and 11:30 AM.

[neufer]

First snow this morning. Not much- just a few millimeters, but enough that somebody won the local pool for today's date. A little below freezing at dawn, but shirtsleeve warm by the middle of the day. This is Colorado in autumn: 7:30 AM and 11:30

Weather forecaster's favorite pool is the first day of snow...but they always require an inch (25.4mm).

[Chris Peterson]

First snow this morning. Not much- just a few millimeters, but enough that somebody won the local pool for today's date. A little below freezing at dawn, but shirtsleeve warm by the middle of the day. This is Colorado in autumn: 7:30 AM and 11:30

Weather forecaster's favorite pool is the first day of snow...but they always require an inch (25.4mm).

We might have had a centimeter. Pick exactly the right spot at maybe there was an inch. But I don't think the folks who run the pool are that picky. As long as the ground is white and the snow is sticking, that's what we're likely to consider our first snowfall.

[neufer]

Hurricane Matthew Heralds the Second Coming of Christ?

So it's just a fluke that they are marking the St. Johns River for major flooding?

[Ann]

Yesterday I came across two bits of information on what (some) Swedish people think of winter, and what happens to people in Sweden during winter. I heard an interview with a moderately prominent Swedish researcher on infectious diseases, Björn Olsen (I guess his ancestors were Danish or Norwegian), who said that he hated winter. During winter I get lethargic and wonder I should even bother, but I love spring, summer and fall, and then I have a lot of energy, he said.

On the same day, they said on Swedish radio that many more people in Sweden die because they take a fall than because they are involved in some sort of traffic-related incident. About 500 people in Sweden die every winter because they slip on the icy ground, while less than 300 people die every year in traffic-related incident.

Well, hear, hear. I, too, hate winter, and I, too, consider the slippery streets and bicycle paths deadly dangerous.

Ann

[Ann]

Got to add a few more things. As I've said before, American tennis player Arthur Ashe wrote his autobiography in the late 1070s, and he wrote about visiting Stockholm in December for a tennis tournament. It's pitch dark at 3 p.m., wrote Ashe. It's very depressing, and the Swedes conquer it by drinking heavily.

American rock star Bruce Springsteen recently released his own autobiography, where he, like Arthur Ashe, wrote about visiting Stockholm in December. It's midnight here all day, wrote Springsteen. He and his band cheered themselves up by visiting a porn show.

Many Swedes try to get away from the Swedish winter. After retiring, many Swedes buy a winter residence i Spain. Then they can spend winter in Spain and summer in Sweden. Yes, because although the Swedish summer may well be cool and rainy, it is at least full of daylight, and there is no snow!

On December 26, 2004, a terrible tsunami hit Thailand. At that time, at least 15,000 Swedes were vacationing in Thailand, to get away from the Swedish darkness and cold. (Surely it wasn't 50,000?) Probably a majority of them were lazing on the beach when the tsunami hit, and 543 Swedes were killed. I'm not sure, but I think that very few other Western countries suffered as many casualties as Sweden in that tsunami, simply because most people in the Western world stay home for Christmas.

Ann

[Ann]

In the summer in Sweden, high pressure zones mean great weather here. In fall and winter, though, high pressure zones mean that all the moisture that gathers in the atmosphere is relentlessly pressed downwards, so that it forms thick, unbroken cloud covers. We've had a high pressure zone above us for weeks now, and the weather has been gray, damp, dank, drizzly, cold and windy. It has been extremely unpleasant.

Click to view full size image

Downtown street of Södra Förstadsgatan, Malmö.

But today, the cloud cover broke. The sun shone through so brilliantly, and it was suddenly warm! This morning I left home wearing a winter coat with my cowl wrapped tight, winter pants, and water-proof heavy winter gloves. When I came home, I took off my gloves and cowl and opened up my coat. I had a coffee at an outdoor café, Espresso House, which you can see at lower left in the picture at left. Then I had to go food shopping, but on my way home, I stopped at an ice cream parlor and had an ice cream. Unfortunately they had removed the outdoor chairs and tables just yesterday, so I had to sit inside!

On my way home, the sun still shone brilliantly. But already I could see a massive cloud bank rising in the west. That cloud bank and those that will follow it will give us our weather on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday will be so-so, and next Thursday it may once again clear up! Of course, Friday eight days from now will bring more rain, and so will the Saturday after that Friday...

Ann

[geckzilla]

You need to replace your windows with LCD screens to fake your brain out and make it think happier times are here during winter.

[rstevenson]

Look at all those bicycles and pedestrians! We're in the early stages of making a more pedestrian and peddle friendly city here. I envy you that at least, if not your weather.

18°C here yesterday, with a warm wind from the south. Should get up to 15 today. We'll be back to seasonal temps any day now -- about 10 to 12 during the day and 3 to 4 at night.

Rob

[Ann]

You need to replace your windows with LCD screens to fake your brain out and make it think happier times are here during winter.

Sort of like a "happy screen", slightly similar to the "landscape fan" seen in the beginning of this old Disney Mickey, Goofy and Donald (Duck) video?

Click to play embedded YouTube video.

Ann

[Ann]

Look at all those bicycles and pedestrians! We're in the early stages of making a more pedestrian and peddle friendly city here. I envy you that at least, if not your weather.

18°C here yesterday, with a warm wind from the south. Should get up to 15 today. We'll be back to seasonal temps any day now -- about 10 to 12 during the day and 3 to 4 at night.

Rob

That picture actually shows two streets. At left is Södra Förstadsgatan, a pedestrian street, and at right is Storgatan, where bicycles and even cars are allowed to pass. But there are far more bikes than cars here. I have to say that pedestrian streets can be very nice, so good luck with your pedestrian and peddle friendly city, Rob!

And I so envy you your weather!

Ann

[geckzilla]

You need to replace your windows with LCD screens to fake your brain out and make it think happier times are here during winter.

Sort of like a "happy screen", slightly similar to the "landscape fan" seen in the beginning of this old Disney Mickey, Goofy and Donald (Duck) video?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxVwU2t50h4

Yeah, pretty much just like that. Actually, if you've got the window mostly blocked by blinds or curtains and only see light coming through, the illusion is powerful. Ever since my street lights were replaced with LEDs, the light filtering through the various windows in my house still tricks me into thinking it's dawn outside.

[geckzilla]

A fog came by to help me see how my new LED lights compare to the old sodium lamps. You can see the old orange lamps shine omni-directional, but the new LED lamps appear much brighter. I don't know whether this means the sky quality remains the same or becomes worse.

[rstevenson]

Probably depends on the reflectivity of the surfaces below the lights. Our local mall -- I live only a block away from it -- has only down-facing lights over its parking lot. On clear nights the sky quality off my back deck is excellent. But on a damp night, only the brightest stars can be seen. The difference has to be the reflectivity of the asphalt-paved parking lot surface.

Rob

[Ann]

Click to view full size image

Snow in Stockholm on December 18, 2009. Photo: Stefan Söderström.

Discussing the weather on a day like this seems like a waste of time, but I can't help noting that winter has come to Sweden. Less than two months ago, on September 13, we had full summer here, with warm sunshine, 26C in the air and people happily swimming in the Strait of Öresund. Now winter is here. Yesterday temperatures were below freezing all day here in Malmö, and last night we got snow. It has been a little milder today, and most of the snow has melted, but not all of it.

In Stockholm they have had persistent snowfall all day today, and all the inner city buses have been cancelled. The picture at left is from the 18th of December, 2009, but I believe it was almost as bad as that in Stockholm today, even though it was just the 9th of November.

Ann

[Chris Peterson]

Discussing the weather on a day like this seems like a waste of time, but I can't help noting that winter has come to Sweden.

What a difference a hemisphere makes!

We have had no sign of winter yet. Sunny and warm every day (a forecast that continues for the next two weeks). Most nights we're not even dipping below freezing. This is completely abnormal for us at this time of year (well, it's normally sunny, but the days should be chilly and the nights below freezing). Probably related to the current La Niña on top of the continuing long term warming trend.

[Ann]

Click to view full size image

Luleå in Sweden. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

My esteemed and sorely missed colleague Arnost Rusek used to say that global warming could well lead to local cooling over southern Scandinavia. The cause, if it was to happen, would be the weakening of the Gulf Stream due to warmer temperatures in the Arctic. But if southern Scandinavia would get colder, notherrn Scandinavia, by contrast, would get milder. The latter is definitely happening. I was born in Luleå, at 65°35'N latitude, and when I lived therein the late fifties and very early sixties, winters lasted for six months, and we got huge amounts of snow. Now winters up there are characterized by temperature swings, and the snow doesn't have time to build up much until it milder weather makes it melt again.

In southern Sweden, however, we might be seeing a cooling trend. It is hard to say whether or not this is really happening, but at least our overall climate doesn't seem to get warmer.

Stockholm received more snow yesterday than it has ever had in November since the Swedish Meteorological Institute started measuring snowfall and snow depths back in 1905.

Ann

[Ann]

My esteemed and sorely missed colleague Arnost Rusek used to say that global warming could well lead to local cooling over southern Scandinavia. The cause, if it was to happen, would be the weakening of the Gulf Stream due to warmer temperatures in the Arctic. But if southern Scandinavia would get colder, notherrn Scandinavia, by contrast, would get milder. The latter is definitely happening. I was born in Luleå, at 65°35'N latitude, and when I lived there in the late fifties and very early sixties, winters lasted for six months, and we got huge amounts of snow. Now winters up there are characterized by temperature swings, and the snow doesn't have time to build up much until it milder weather makes it melt again.

In southern Sweden, however, we might be seeing a cooling trend. It is hard to say whether or not this is really happening, but at least our overall climate doesn't seem to be getting warmer.

Stockholm received more snow yesterday than it has ever had in November since the Swedish Meteorological Institute started measuring snowfall and snow depths back in 1905.

Ann

[rstevenson]

Global Warming won't necessarily lead to an even temperature rise globally. The most likely result is much more interesting weather for a lot of us, with some regions heating up, and others cooling, catastrophically. "Interesting" in this case meaning hot/cold and wet/dry swings greater than ever seen before -- in our meteorologically recorded history, at least.

Some predictions suggest the possibility of a mini ice age over a lot of Europe because of that change in the ocean currents you mention, but we're not there yet. You're probably just experiencing one of those wider swings in temperature and precipitation which are now, alas, the "new normal."

Rob

[Chris Peterson]

Global Warming won't necessarily lead to an even temperature rise globally.

What so many people don't get (and I'm not including you or Ann in that group) is that global warming just means that the average temperature of the Earth is higher, because it's absorbing more energy than it's releasing back to space. But the Earth's climate is a giant system of heat pumps. A refrigerator consumes energy and turns it into a net increase in temperature. But it also creates a cold space in part of it. The Earth works similarly. A warmer Earth can produce regional shifts that are colder.

[neufer]

<<My esteemed and sorely missed colleague Arnost Rusek used to say that global warming could well lead to local cooling over southern Scandinavia. The cause, if it was to happen, would be the weakening of the Gulf Stream due to warmer temperatures in the Arctic. But if southern Scandinavia would get colder, notherrn Scandinavia, by contrast, would get milder. The latter is definitely happening. I was born in Luleå, at 65°35'N latitude, and when I lived therein the late fifties and very early sixties, winters lasted for six months, and we got huge amounts of snow. Now winters up there are characterized by temperature swings, and the snow doesn't have time to build up much until it milder weather makes it melt again.

In southern Sweden, however, we might be seeing a cooling trend. It is hard to say whether or not this is really happening, but at least our overall climate doesn't seem to get warmer. Stockholm received more snow yesterday than it has ever had in November since the Swedish Meteorological Institute started measuring snowfall and snow depths back in 1905.>>

NOAA/GFDL CM2.1 Climate Model

[b][color=#0000FF]Model name CM2.1 Climate Model Scientist(s) Thomas Delworth, Ronald Stouffer, Michael Winton Visualization Personnel Keith Dixon[/color][/b]

---

<<GFDL CM2.1 model-simulated change in seasonal mean surface air temperature from the late 20th century (1971-2000 average) to the middle 21st century (2051-2060). The left panel shows changes for June July August (JJA) seasonal averages, and the right panel shows changes for December January February (DJF). The simulated surface air temperature changes are in response to increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols based on a “middle of the road” estimate of future emissions This scenario is denoted as IPCC SRES A1B. Warming is projected to be larger over continents than oceans, and is largest at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF).>>

[Ann]

Click to view full size image

Stockholm, November 9, 2016. Photo: Sacharias Källdén.

Can't resist showing you this picture from Valhallavägen, Stockholm, November 9, 2016.

For ourselves here in Malmö, the weather has been rather bitterly cold. We didn't get much snow at all, but the snow that didn't disappear right away has stubbornly stayed on. Our nights have been Arctic - well, −6^oC, but that's really cold for Malmö in early November. But we will be getting milder weather next week. Stockholm will, too. Their weather has been milder than ours the last few days, but of course, with all their snow, I wouldn't want to be in their shoes right now.

Ann

[neufer]

---