APOD: Global Warming Predictions (2009 April 21)

[aristarchusinexile]

aristarchusinexile wrote:

"Plus the people around the world dying of heat exhaustion?"

I guess this is a suggestion that I am a horrible, awful, nasty person for not believing the AGW hypothesis since I obviously care nothing about human suffering. According to http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/321/7262/670, there are substantially more deaths due to cold weather than to hot weather. I could similarly assert that people who don't want the world to warm up don't care about human suffering. With all due respect, it's silly to try to convince someone of the truth or falsity of a hypothesis with a totally unrelated bit of emotionalism. Can we try to be rational and stick to logic, reason, and history to discuss this topic? Thank you.

- Roy Tucker

I made no suggestion to your character at all, Roy, but now that you bring yourself to the fore I think 'a trifle paranoid' is a reasonable assessment. My statement on heat deaths was unemotional fact, just observation. I didn't examine the statistics of your url, but warm weather breeds malaria, and it's difficult for me to see deaths from cold weather surpassing malaria alone, let alone the rest of warm weather insect diseases and fungus diseases and other causes of heat deaths.

[aristarchusinexile]

Chris Peterson wrote:

"I think you don't understand how science works in the real world"

This particular comment is one of Chris's favourite suggestions, Roy. Nothing personal meant, not aimed at you at all .. just a general assessment of anyone who disagrees with him. But otherwise Chris is a nice enough person. [/quote]

[Dr. Skeptic]

aristarchusinexile wrote:

"Plus the people around the world dying of heat exhaustion?"

I guess this is a suggestion that I am a horrible, awful, nasty person for not believing the AGW hypothesis since I obviously care nothing about human suffering. According to http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/321/7262/670, there are substantially more deaths due to cold weather than to hot weather. I could similarly assert that people who don't want the world to warm up don't care about human suffering. With all due respect, it's silly to try to convince someone of the truth or falsity of a hypothesis with a totally unrelated bit of emotionalism. Can we try to be rational and stick to logic, reason, and history to discuss this topic? Thank you.

- Roy Tucker

I made no suggestion to your character at all, Roy, but now that you bring yourself to the fore I think 'a trifle paranoid' is a reasonable assessment. My statement on heat deaths was unemotional fact, just observation. I didn't examine the statistics of your url, but warm weather breeds malaria, and it's difficult for me to see deaths from cold weather surpassing malaria alone, let alone the rest of warm weather insect diseases and fungus diseases and other causes of heat deaths.

Cold is associated with crop failure and starvation. A slower and wider dynamic of population displacement and/or death.

[aristarchusinexile]

aristarchusinexile wrote:

"Plus the people around the world dying of heat exhaustion?"

I guess this is a suggestion that I am a horrible, awful, nasty person for not believing the AGW hypothesis since I obviously care nothing about human suffering. According to http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/321/7262/670, there are substantially more deaths due to cold weather than to hot weather. I could similarly assert that people who don't want the world to warm up don't care about human suffering. With all due respect, it's silly to try to convince someone of the truth or falsity of a hypothesis with a totally unrelated bit of emotionalism. Can we try to be rational and stick to logic, reason, and history to discuss this topic? Thank you.

- Roy Tucker

I made no suggestion to your character at all, Roy, but now that you bring yourself to the fore I think 'a trifle paranoid' is a reasonable assessment. My statement on heat deaths was unemotional fact, just observation. I didn't examine the statistics of your url, but warm weather breeds malaria, and it's difficult for me to see deaths from cold weather surpassing malaria alone, let alone the rest of warm weather insect diseases and fungus diseases and other causes of heat deaths.

Cold is associated with crop failure and starvation. A slower and wider dynamic of population displacement and/or death.

Tell that to the people who lived in what became the Sahara. Cold is also associated with snow and slow release of water in spring which fourishes both wild and cultivated crops. Whatever the causes, 'natural' catastrophe normally follows gross neglect of higher ethics, as is the case with global warming .. a world gone mad with absolute worship of material goods and bare flesh.

[The Code]

Hi

I saw a program on TV showed a group of scientists covering the melting ice in glassier s, with a white poly mat up to 3 foot ball pitches in size.. The out come was they stopped 18 inches thick, of ice melting which was under the mat. over a six month period.
Sun reflection off snow and ice was 45% reflection of this white mat was 75% looks very promising. program was called ''ways to save the planet''

Mark

[aristarchusinexile]

Hi

I saw a program on TV showed a group of scientists covering the melting ice in glassier s, with a white poly mat up to 3 foot ball pitches in size.. The out come was they stopped 18 inches thick, of ice melting which was under the mat. over a six month period.
Sun reflection off snow and ice was 45% reflection of this white mat was 75% looks very promising. program was called ''ways to save the planet''

Mark

And where is the ENORMOUS amount of money to come from, with most governments in most nations in the world bankrupt?

[The Code]

They said would be cheaper than rebuilding all the flooded cities in the world..

mark

[BMAONE23]

aristarchusinexile wrote:

"Plus the people around the world dying of heat exhaustion?"

I guess this is a suggestion that I am a horrible, awful, nasty person for not believing the AGW hypothesis since I obviously care nothing about human suffering. According to http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/321/7262/670, there are substantially more deaths due to cold weather than to hot weather. I could similarly assert that people who don't want the world to warm up don't care about human suffering. With all due respect, it's silly to try to convince someone of the truth or falsity of a hypothesis with a totally unrelated bit of emotionalism. Can we try to be rational and stick to logic, reason, and history to discuss this topic? Thank you.

- Roy Tucker

I made no suggestion to your character at all, Roy, but now that you bring yourself to the fore I think 'a trifle paranoid' is a reasonable assessment. My statement on heat deaths was unemotional fact, just observation. I didn't examine the statistics of your url, but warm weather breeds malaria, and it's difficult for me to see deaths from cold weather surpassing malaria alone, let alone the rest of warm weather insect diseases and fungus diseases and other causes of heat deaths.

For example, think of the Little Ice Age that followed the last (medieval) warm period. millions died of starvation and were displaced by glaciation. Others died from the cold associated with the period. Growing seasons were shortened to 2 months long. So both extremes have their downside. Then generally one (heating) will lead to the other (ice age) eventually, with the depth of the latter inverse to the height of the former.

[aristarchusinexile]

They said would be cheaper than rebuilding all the flooded cities in the world.

mark

The processes would generate enormous amounts of heat and pollution. Technology is not the answer, unless we shut down a lot of our technology. I remind us all that in the 1970s (I believe it was) the United Nations estimated the world could sustain a healthy population of (I think it was 40 billion, perhaps it was 80 billion) .. but of course that was prior the two car garage, three or four bath standard as life's necessity.

I think one point which many of us may be missing is that the cycles we are seeing during this warming, one year cooler than the previous, does not reveal what is going on in the higher levels of atmosphere. I wonder how many measurements are being made at how many heights through the atmosphere. I suspect in 'cool' years the heat is transferred to upper levels.

[The Code]

They was not talking about covering the hole, Greenland ice sheet.. Just the edges where its melting. to stop the ice lakes and rivers. and it worked.

mark

[gpobserver]

Aristarchusinexile wrote:

"I made no suggestion to your character at all, Roy, but now that you bring yourself to the fore I think 'a trifle paranoid' is a reasonable assessment. My statement on heat deaths was unemotional fact, just observation. I didn't examine the statistics of your url, but warm weather breeds malaria, and it's difficult for me to see deaths from cold weather surpassing malaria alone, let alone the rest of warm weather insect diseases and fungus diseases and other causes of heat deaths."

Not necessarily paranoid. I've had discussions with AGW true believers before. It is usually not a long wait before the ad hominem attacks are directed to me in response to my expressions of doubt.

Malaria wouldn't be such a problem if the ban on DDT was eliminated. 30 to 40 million people are dead because of some unfounded fear of harm to birds. Thank you, Rachel Carson.

"Tell that to the people who lived in what became the Sahara. Cold is also associated with snow and slow release of water in spring which fourishes both wild and cultivated crops. Whatever the causes, 'natural' catastrophe normally follows gross neglect of higher ethics, as is the case with global warming .. a world gone mad with absolute worship of material goods and bare flesh."

You will find that the Sahara is in retreat. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/2267652.stm Could it be because of sunspot activity? Change in circulation patterns? Carbon dioxide? We don't know. Maybe it would be a good idea to actually get some data from the actual system instead of just relying upon the output from some deeply flawed and simplistic computer models?

Affluence provides the wealth to respond to emergencies and changing conditions. Do you want a great reduction in the human population of the earth by dramatic means? We should all live 'close to nature' doing intensive agriculture? That's what Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge tried to do in Cambodia. No, thank you.

BMAONE23 wrote:

"For example, think of the Little Ice Age that followed the last (medieval) warm period. millions died of starvation and were displaced by glaciation. Others died from the cold associated with the period. Growing seasons were shortened to 2 months long. So both extremes have their downside. Then generally one (heating) will lead to the other (ice age) eventually, with the depth of the latter inverse to the height of the former."

Climate changes. That's what climate does. Our best bet is to be affluent enough to be able to respond and help people adapt. It is not within our power to regulate climate. Even if we could, who gets to set the thermostat? What should it be set to? Should it be set to promote the optimum human quality of life? The optimum biodiversity? Should it be warmer, cooler, or stay the same? Such power would be dangerous and prone to misuse. My assessment of the evidence I have examined indicates climate is dominated by solar activity and the galactic cosmic ray environment. If there is a Creator, he was most wise to put the thermostat so far beyond our reach.

Best regards,
- Roy

[aristarchusinexile]

I've had discussions with AGW true believers before. It is usually not a long wait before the ad hominem attacks are directed to me in response to my expressions of doubt.

Emotions do creep in, on both sides.

Malaria wouldn't be such a problem if the ban on DDT was eliminated. 30 to 40 million people are dead because of some unfounded fear of harm to birds. Thank you, Rachel Carson.

They are dead because, in my personal opinion totally unrelated to astronomy, the 'developed' world can't afford a huge Black population, and because, like here, the wealthy Africans black or white aren't wealthy because they share their wealth as much as they could do.

There are great alternatives to DDT; and if it comes down to Caucasians in North Americans or Europe dead through DDT induced cancer, or Black Africans dead through malaria, which is it going to be? And what do you have against birds?
Birds are nice .. they sing nice songs .. they provide colour .. they inspire dreams of flight.

You will find that the Sahara is in retreat. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/2267652.stm.

That's news to me. I am aware there is a little reclamation going on in the Sahel, at the boundary of the Sahara, through investment in wells, vegetation planting, etc. I agree about computer models regardless of application, they are probably deeply flawed.

Affluence provides the wealth to respond to emergencies and changing conditions.

When it's advantageous to the wealthy. In New Orleans after the flood, poor or non-poor blacks out for a stroll were the target of indiscriminate murder by Caucasians wealthy enough to afford guns.

Do you want a great reduction in the human population of the earth by dramatic means?

No. You didn't read my post in which I said the U.N. said the planet could sustain a healthy population of 40 billion? There is no great reduction needed, except that the vast majority of the wealthy would lose their status by real sharing, by paying employees their value, for instance, but then, that would be called Communism, wouldn't it?

We should all live 'close to nature' doing intensive agriculture? That's what Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge tried to do in Cambodia."

What's wrong with intensive agriculture? What do we really know about what on in Cambodia? Propaganda is so full of outright lies. Don't forget that the Russians were said to be a bunch of illiterate potato farmers before Sputnik went up. I get the view that Cambodia was a successful agrarian society which was destroyed by civil war set up by the U.S. military partly to aid their effort in Vietnam, and partly just to destroy another socialist government. Propaganda .. if the North Koreans are so illiterate and starved how come they have ICBMs and satellites? Don't believe everything you read in the newspaper. Did you know that Haiti had the highest per capita income under the Black government established by the revolution which kicked the French out, until the U.S. military invaded and destroyed (cut down all the trees for instance) that country because it could become a haven for runaway slaves? Listen, I'm not knocking the people of the U.S. anymore than I knock our Canadians .. our trans Canada railroad meant near genocide and infanticide for our natives on the prairies .. none of us are guiltless of the deliberate mass murders in our planet's history .. and 'God is on our side' is always printed somewhere on the military equipment.

If there is a Creator, he was most wise to put the thermostat so far beyond our reach.

Yes, God is in control, and Righteously so. (Edited as per request)

[StACase]

...in my personal opinion totally unrelated to astronomy, the 'developed' world can't afford a huge Black population ...

There are great alternatives to DDT; and if it comes down to Caucasians in North Americans or Europe dead through DDT induced cancer, or Black Africans dead through malaria, which is it going to be? ...

In New Orleans after the flood, poor or non-poor blacks out for a stroll were the target of indiscriminate murder by Caucasians wealthy enough to afford guns.

You should write for The Onion.

[bystander]

You should write for The Onion.

Nah, the writers for The Onion are believable.

[aristarchusinexile]

You should write for The Onion.

My contract with APOD says I can't write for competitors .. however, how much does Onion pay?

[aristarchusinexile]

The latest just in from the latest scientific conference on global warming .. "soot on Arctic ice increases melting". 'Duh.
"Would the chairman loan me his calculator please, I need to add 1 + 1."

[Chris Peterson]

The latest just in from the latest scientific conference on global warming .. "soot on Arctic ice increases melting". 'Duh.
"Would the chairman loan me his calculator please, I need to add 1 + 1."

It may seem obvious, but somebody still has to test the idea and report the results. Sometimes what you think is obvious turns out to be wrong... you can end up with bad results if you don't find out for sure.

[The Code]

I came up with the idea , of filling 100 billion white poly balls with hydrogen/helium so they float up to the edge of the atmosphere to reflect the sun.. but that probably would not work..

Mark

[Chris Peterson]

I came up with the idea , of filling 100 billion white poly balls with hydrogen/helium so they float up to the edge of the atmosphere to reflect the sun.. but that would probably would not work.

I think the current strategy, of simply trying to reduce our impact closer to pre-industrial levels is a good deal safer than any sort of active intervention. We simply don't know enough about how the climate works to risk engineering it, unless we have no other choice. Fortunately, we haven't reached that point yet!

[aristarchusinexile]

http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/i ... 7V20090428

[aristarchusinexile]

I came up with the idea , of filling 100 billion white poly balls with hydrogen/helium so they float up to the edge of the atmosphere to reflect the sun.. but that would probably would not work.

I think the current strategy, of simply trying to reduce our impact closer to pre-industrial levels is a good deal safer than any sort of active intervention. We simply don't know enough about how the climate works to risk engineering it, unless we have no other choice. Fortunately, we haven't reached that point yet!

Reduce our impact to pre-industrial levels? How do you propose we do that .. eliminate cars, trucks, busses, airplanes, ships that ply the sea, shoe factories, candy stores and ice cream parlours? Just leave my moped alone.

[aristarchusinexile]

I came up with the idea , of filling 100 billion white poly balls with hydrogen/helium so they float up to the edge of the atmosphere to reflect the sun.. but that probably would not work..

Mark

I've got another idea .. Inflate us all to beachball roundness with laughing gas and set us adrift so we can die laughing.

[bystander]

I've got another idea .. Inflate us all to beachball roundness with laughing gas and set us adrift so we can die laughing.

Nitrous oxide is also a major greenhouse gas.

[aristarchusinexile]

I've got another idea .. Inflate us all to beachball roundness with laughing gas and set us adrift so we can die laughing.

Nitrous oxide is also a major greenhouse gas.

Well, we're a little short of it on this planet .. let's pump it up .. dump it into my moped tank.

[The Code]

We are not going to stop Co2, coal power stations, Oil production, its all down to money. Its really hard for the world to change as fast as it needs to. cutting solar energy from the sun stops the problem while we work out the solution, which will take a long time.. The heat needs to be sorted now..

mark