I am reproducing below a warning message regarding current solar activity. Some of this might be observable by the CONCAM/NSL network, so please do keep your eyes open. There is no reason why the cameras should not see the possible strong aurora. Cheers,
Noah
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING - 11-14 SEPTEMBER
A middle latitude auroral activity warning has been issued for the
next several days. Intense solar flare activity continues. The associated
high velocity coronal mass ejections are beginning to become more heavily directed toward the Earth. Several smaller impacts were observed over the last 24 to 48 hours from solar activity that occurred when sunspot complex 10808 was on the eastern limb of the Sun. But now, the region has rotated sufficiently far to produce stronger Earthward-directed impacts.
The latest impact was observed near 01:19 UTC on 11 September
(9:19 pm EDT on 10 September). This disturbance has the potential to produce periods of minor to major auroral storm conditions during the next 12 to 24 hours. Combining this disturbance with several others that are anticipated during the next 48 hours may result in a more volatile mixture of space weather conditions, perhaps capable of producing significant auroral storm activity during the next week. Observers across the United States and Europe (even toward the lower latitudes of the central/southern states) may spot periodsof activity during the next week.
Active sunspot Region 10808 remains exceptionally complex and
volatile. It has produced two X-class flares within the last 12 hours (the
largest being a class X2.1 event at 22:11 UTC (6:11 pm EDT) on 10 September. Additional strong X-class flares are expected in the coming days. With each passing day, the trajectory of the ejected mass from these events will impact the Earth more directly, resulting in greater opportunities for observers to spot auroral activity.
The official auroral activity warning statement is appended below.
Note the statement indicating there is a good chance the warning may be
extended beyond the 14 September deadline.
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Issued: 01:45 UTC on 11 September 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
http://www.spacew.com
VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 14 SEPTEMBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 11-13 SEPTEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 11-14 SEPTEMBER
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 40, 40, 20 (11 - 14 SEPTEMBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24-72 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 72-96 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
CENTRAL FRANCE TO NORTHERN SWITZERLAND TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO THE CZECH REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.
NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
A series of coronal mass ejections have been directed partially
Earthward over the last few days. The Earth is beginning to observe
impacts from some of the stronger events. Periods of intensifying auroral
activity will be observed during the next several days. The first of the larger impacts occurred near 01:19 UTC on 11 September and is expected to produce periods of minor to major auroral storm conditions, sporadically during the next 12 to 18 hours. Additional strong impacts are expected over the next several days. Some of these disturbances are cannibalizing other CME's, and as a result, the potential geoeffectiveness will likely be complex and difficult to accurately predict. Nevertheless, the potential exists for periods of strong auroral storm conditions developing during the next several days (at least). Near-continuous storm-level activity is possible during the next week, if sunspot complex 10808 continues to impress with energetic flare activity.
This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
14 September, with a good chance that it will be extended beyond the
14th. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For
real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html