Weather!

[orin stepanek]

Click to view full size image

Rain, rain, rain. Photo: SVT.

Right now our weather looks like this. And it's going to stay this way for at least a week.

Ann

Ann; please keep that slop over there!
We had Ice jams under the Platte bridge a couple of weeks ago! I haven'e heard of update; so I am hoping the problem went away!

[orin stepanek]

Sounds like the deep freeze is over! weather forecasters are calling for a string of days in the 30's and 40's!

[orin stepanek]

Golly gee: two days ago we were supposed to get a blizzard like OMG! Lucky us it went up North a bit and we just got some ice cold rain! Tomorrow is supposed to reach the 70's! I guess you could say we are getting yo-yo weather Anyway I hope that was the last cold blast!
I see Alabama is getting twister damage; hopefully they get some good weather now! I found out on the news that the USA is more prone to tornadic activity than any other country!

[neufer]

Click to play embedded YouTube video.

Golly gee: two days ago we were supposed to get a blizzard like OMG! Lucky us it went up North a bit and we just got some ice cold rain! Tomorrow is supposed to reach the 70's! I guess you could say we are getting yo-yo weather Anyway I hope that was the last cold blast!

I see Alabama is getting twister damage; hopefully they get some good weather now! I found out on the news that the USA is more prone to tornadic activity than any other country!

Global warming in mid-latitudes => yo-yo weather.

[orin stepanek]

False Science????????? Several of these on the net!

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=mi ... &FORM=VIRE

[BDanielMayfield]

False Science????????? Several of these on the net!

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=mi ... &FORM=VIRE

Yeah the internut is full o lots of garbage. The Maunder Minimum of low sunspot activity wasn't the cause of the Little Ice Age.

[Chris Peterson]

False Science????????? Several of these on the net! :roll: :brr:

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=mi ... &FORM=VIRE

Yeah the internut is full o lots of garbage. The Maunder Minimum of low sunspot activity wasn't the cause of the Little Ice Age.

We don't know that. There are good arguments on both sides, as well as the possibility that it's not a binary issue at all. Bottom line is that this isn't something that is very well understood. There's no scientific consensus either way, so we should all be cautious getting overly attached to any explanation.

[BDanielMayfield]

False Science????????? Several of these on the net!

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=mi ... &FORM=VIRE

Yeah the internut is full o lots of garbage. The Maunder Minimum of low sunspot activity wasn't the cause of the Little Ice Age.

We don't know that. There are good arguments on both sides, as well as the possibility that it's not a binary issue at all. Bottom line is that this isn't something that is very well understood. There's no scientific consensus either way, so we should all be cautious getting overly attached to any explanation.

I didn't make that claim without reason. Quoting wikipedia's article on the "Little Ice Age":

Solar activity

Main article: Solar variation

There is still a very poor understanding of the correlation between low sunspot activity and cooling temperatures.[78][79] During the period 1645–1715, in the middle of the Little Ice Age, there was a period of low solar activity known as the Maunder Minimum. The Spörer Minimum has also been identified with a significant cooling period between 1460 and 1550.[80] Other indicators of low solar activity during this period are levels of the isotopes carbon-14 and beryllium-10.[81]

Volcanic activity

In a 2012 paper, Miller et al. link the Little Ice Age to an "unusual 50-year-long episode with four large sulfur-rich explosive eruptions, each with global sulfate loading >60 Tg" and notes that "large changes in solar irradiance are not required."[6]

Throughout the Little Ice Age, the world experienced heightened volcanic activity.[82] When a volcano erupts, its ash reaches high into the atmosphere and can spread to cover the whole earth. The ash cloud blocks out some of the incoming solar radiation, leading to worldwide cooling that can last up to two years after an eruption. Also emitted by eruptions is sulfur, in the form of sulfur dioxide gas. When it reaches the stratosphere, it turns into sulfuric acid particles, which reflect the sun's rays, further reducing the amount of radiation reaching Earth's surface.

A recent study found that an especially massive tropical volcanic eruption in 1257, possibly of the now-extinct Mount Samalas near Mount Rinjani, both in Lombok, Indonesia, followed by three smaller eruptions in 1268, 1275, and 1284 did not allow the climate to recover. This may have caused the initial cooling, and the 1452–53 eruption of Kuwae in Vanuatu triggered a second pulse of cooling.[6] The cold summers can be maintained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks long after volcanic aerosols are removed.

Other volcanoes that erupted during the era and may have contributed to the cooling include Billy Mitchell (ca. 1580), Huaynaputina (1600), Mount Parker (1641), Long Island (Papua New Guinea) (ca. 1660), and Laki (1783).[21] The 1815 eruption of Tambora, also in Indonesia, blanketed the atmosphere with ash; the following year, 1816, came to be known as the Year Without a Summer,[83] when frost and snow were reported in June and July in both New England and Northern Europe.

The underline above was mine. I contend that something that occurred during the middle of an event couldn't have also been its cause. Maybe it (the Maunder Minimum) helped deepen or prolong the Little Ice Age, but there's no way the MM was the cause of the LIA. Volcanic activity makes much more sense as a primary driver for this climate event.

Bruce

[Chris Peterson]

Yeah the internut is full o lots of garbage. The Maunder Minimum of low sunspot activity wasn't the cause of the Little Ice Age.

We don't know that. There are good arguments on both sides, as well as the possibility that it's not a binary issue at all. Bottom line is that this isn't something that is very well understood. There's no scientific consensus either way, so we should all be cautious getting overly attached to any explanation.

I didn't make that claim without reason.

To be clear, the claim "the Maunder Minimum of low sunspot activity wasn't the cause of the Little Ice Age" is intellectually poor. We do not know the role that it played, nor are we even able to accurately date it. A better claim would be something less assertive, along the lines of "we have good reasons to doubt that the Little Ice Age was caused, or solely caused, by the Maunder Minimum".

[BDanielMayfield]

When contending with junk science claims like the ones Orin linked to less assertive claims are weak, watered-down arguments. Or should we be ok with global warming denier fueling claims that the Sun is about to cause another Ice Age?

You claim Chris that my statement was "intellectually poor" while also choosing to ignore my quoted evidence. Is believing that for something to be a cause it must precede the alleged effect intellectually lacking?

trying not to take offense, Bruce

[orin stepanek]

I brought it up because of the NASA warns title! Time wise it is right around the corner, so we'll find out soon enough! ?????? I'm just a layman!

[BDanielMayfield]

I brought it up because of the NASA warns title! Time wise it is right around the corner, so we'll find out soon enough! ?????? I'm just a layman!

I'm not an expert either Orin, but I strongly feel that those stories are indeed "False Science". They claim "NASA warns" but then site one or two "NASA scientist", but if that was really what the majority believed it would be a much bigger story. It's old fake news too, as those vids are from last year.

[orin stepanek]

well; you might be right & you might be wrong; I don't know! However, I am a skeptic of today's media! You know; you control the masses and you control the world! I kinda stand by and watch things as they proceed! Kind of like next year isn't very far away! I'm so old anyway that it isn't going to affect me as much as most people!

[Chris Peterson]

When contending with junk science claims like the ones Orin linked to less assertive claims are weak, watered-down arguments. Or should we be ok with global warming denier fueling claims that the Sun is about to cause another Ice Age?

You claim Chris that my statement was "intellectually poor" while also choosing to ignore my quoted evidence. Is believing that for something to be a cause it must precede the alleged effect intellectually lacking?

trying not to take offense, Bruce

No need to take offense. The statement is intellectual poor because it states something very much in the form of a fact, for which no scientific consensus exists. The evidence you presented is all secondary. I can assure you, plenty of experts still consider it very possible that there's a relationship between the Maunder Minimum and the climate changes seen around the 16th century and after. It's not well understood, so it's wise not to take any position too strongly.

[BDanielMayfield]

Ok, I'll de-ruffle my feathers. But my strongly held opinion remains that the stories hyping an eminent return to Little Ice Age climate because the Sun seems to be headed into a period of sunspot inactivity are garbage. From what I can gather from reading up on solar output during sunspot minimums the drop in average annual solar energy would only be about 0.1%. My opinion is that such a small decrease wouldn't be near enough to reverse AGW.

Bruce

[Chris Peterson]

Ok, I'll de-ruffle my feathers. But my strongly held opinion remains that the stories hyping an eminent return to Little Ice Age climate because the Sun seems to be headed into a period of sunspot inactivity are garbage. From what I can gather from reading up on solar output during sunspot minimums the drop in average annual solar energy would only be about 0.1%. My opinion is that such a small decrease wouldn't be near enough to reverse AGW.

I don't disagree with your assessment of claims that a deep solar minimum will cause a new ice age. Indeed, everything we know about the Little Ice Age suggests that it was a weaker negative trend than the current positive one. At most, assuming a connection between solar activity and climate, we might expect a slight reduction in the rate of warming. Things are almost certainly going to keep getting hotter.

[Chris Peterson]

We're having a wild and crazy spring here in the Rockies. More than 6 inches of heavy, wet snow dropped on us last night. The temperature was above freezing most of the time. Bright and sunny today, with around 0.5" melted into my gauge so far. Today is graduation at Guffey School... if it were not, we might have called a snow day. I've been keeping track of our last snowfall since 1999. This is ten days later than any other, and twice as heavy. But it's sure doing wonders for the grass and flowers.
_

[bystander]

We have this unusual weather phenomenon today. There's this bright light in the sky and there is no liquid falling out of the sky. I've checked all of the local news stations but the weathermen are all strangely quiet.

[orin stepanek]

We have this unusual weather phenomenon today. There's this bright light in the sky and there is no liquid falling out of the sky. I've checked all of the local news stations but the weathermen are all strangely quiet.

The weathermen don't know what to make of it! I've been getting kind of tired of all the twisters; floods; and cold rains for the end of May! It's good to have that bright light in the sky for a change! Don't go out and get yourself overly tanned by that bright light! Bet the skeeters are going to start hatching now!

[Ann]

Click to view full size image

Lightning strikes one of the pylons of the Öresund Bridge.
Photo: Johan Nilsson/TT.

We have had a lot of thunder and lightning where I live recently. Yesterday night, some spectacular lightning hit one of the pylons of the Öresund Bridge, which connects Malmö and Copenhagen.

Tonight there is a fine display of noctilucent clouds outside my kitchen window.

Ann

[neufer]

Unusually skewed gap in ozone layer could be smallest in three decades
‘Nobody knows what’s triggered it’: Scientists struggle to explain strangely shaped Antarctic ozone hole
by Harry Cockburn, The Independent

Neufer's 18 year record of (NOAA/TOAST) Ozone Holes (2002 to 2019)

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<<The ozone hole that opens every year over the Antarctic is on course to be the smallest in three decades, scientists have said. Researchers say the hole is also a particularly unusual shape this year, being heavily skewed towards South America instead of centring on the South Pole. The rare shape – never before observed – indicates a significant distortion to the usual polar vortex, which maintains low temperatures in the stratosphere.

The hole is currently well under half the area that usually opens up by mid-September, and may have already reached its maximum size, a little smaller in area than the Antarctic continent. The hole disappears and reforms every year over the Antarctic due to the unique weather patterns that create incredibly cold circling winds above the pole.

According to the British Antarctic Survey, the hole had reached an area of 11 million square kilometres in early September, when the annual “spring warming” event kicked in much earlier than usual. In 2018, the hole reached a maximum area of 22.9 square kilometres. The bizarre shift in the ozone pattern is only the second time such a change in the hole’s behaviour has been observed. In 2002, the polar vortex split in two, creating two separate ozone holes over the continent.

Anna Jones a scientist at the British Antarctic Survey told The Independent the shape of the hole this year was “very unusual”. She said: “Very occasionally in the Antarctic you will get disturbances. And I don’t think anybody knows what’s triggered it this year. This is a pretty new phenomenon. It could be a multiple collection of factors.” Satellite records for the polar vortex in Antarctica go back to the late 1970s, but the 2002 split vortex is the only other major change. “Scientists haven’t quite figured it out yet … there are various things they can look at, but it’s certainly very unusual,” Dr Jones said.

Explaining how the polar vortex normally works, she said: “Over Antarctica you have a very strong westerly wind system which sets up over the winter. You get very cold temperatures over the Antarctic continent and the winds are very fast, which holds it in place. “The winds are driven by the temperature difference between equatorial temperatures and polar temperatures. This is what you expect over the Antarctic. Sometimes – and it is very unusual – you get distortions to these winds. “In Antarctica you have a continent surrounded by a flat ocean. You don’t have a lot of stuff at ground level, so the air can flow around without anything getting in its way.

Describing the shape of the 2019 hole as a “blip”, Dr Jones said the key to reducing the size of the ozone hole in the long term was continuing to clampdown on the illegal man-made chemicals causing the destruction. She also warned people living in South America could now be at risk from dangerous UV radiation as the ozone has thinned.

“The key thing is that the gases that destroy ozone are still around, still in the atmosphere,” she said. “They destroy ozone – one of the reasons you get the hole over Antarctica is because it’s so cold over Antarctica due to the very strong vortex. This causes polar stratospheric clouds, which are sort of icy surfaces and they are an important ingredient in causing the destruction of the ozone over Antarctica. “If the temperatures are warmer and you have fewer of these polar stratospheric clouds, then you will be destroying less ozone.” She added: “This is an unusual feature resulting from unusual dynamics, but the chemistry which destroys ozone is still there. “I doubt we will see this again next year. We can’t be complacent, it absolutely doesn’t mean the ozone hole is never going to be seen again.”>>

[neufer]

Unusually skewed gap in ozone layer could be smallest in three decades
‘Nobody knows what’s triggered it’: Scientists struggle to explain strangely shaped Antarctic ozone hole
by Harry Cockburn, The Independent

Neufer's 18 year record of (NOAA/TOAST) Ozone Holes (2002 to 2019)

---

<<The ozone hole that opens every year over the Antarctic is on course to be the smallest in three decades, scientists have said. Researchers say the hole is also a particularly unusual shape this year, being heavily skewed towards South America instead of centring on the South Pole. The rare shape – never before observed – indicates a significant distortion to the usual polar vortex, which maintains low temperatures in the stratosphere.

The hole is currently well under half the area that usually opens up by mid-September, and may have already reached its maximum size, a little smaller in area than the Antarctic continent. The hole disappears and reforms every year over the Antarctic due to the unique weather patterns that create incredibly cold circling winds above the pole. >>

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/spo_oz/

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[orin stepanek]

Wasn't the origin of the ozone hole blamed on freon? Since they changed the chemistry of freon; wasn't that a factor in the shrinking of the hole????

[neufer]

Wasn't the origin of the ozone hole blamed on freon?
Since they changed the chemistry of freon; wasn't that a factor in the shrinking of the hole????

It takes a while for:

• 1) mid-latitude tropospheric Freon to first reach the Antarctic stratosphere
  2) and then to be flushed out of the stratospheric system.

Plus the fact that those Freon substitutes are also ozone destroyers
(though ones somewhat more easily flushed out).

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<<The Ozone Depleting Gas Index (ODGI) is defined by the observed decline in halogen abundance (as EESC-A) from its peak in Antarctica (ODGI = 100) relative to the drop needed for EESC-A to reach its value in 1980, which is about when the Antarctic ozone hole was readily detected (Figure 2, dotted green line). Though some halogen-catalyzed ozone depletion was occurring before 1980, return of EESC-A back to the 1980 level would represent a significant milestone for the Montreal Protocol. On the ODGI scale, the value of ODGI-A at the beginning of 2018 was 79 i.e., by that time we had progressed 21% (i.e., 100-79) of the way along the path toward the 1980 benchmark halogen level. The latter has been projected to occur over Antarctica sometime around 2070 considering the updated future scenarios in the 2014 WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessments of Ozone Depletion (Harris and Wuebbles et al., 2014).>>
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<<Changes in Total Column Dobson Ozone measurements made at the Amundsen Scott South Pole Station (AMS) during 15-31 October. The y-axis shows ozone change (percent) from the pre-ozone hole reference level of 300 DU (averaged over 1962-1978). The dots are column ozone averages for the 15-31 October period measured from 1962 to 2017. The thin line is the Loess-smoother fit to the data. The record-long average thickness of the ozone layer over the South Pole is 260 DU (245 DU after 1979). If the ozone layer was compressed to a layer of pure ozone at the sea level, the thickness would be 2.6 millimeters thick -- about 2 and half stacked dimes. If the entire atmosphere were to be also compressed, it would be about 8 kilometers thick.

Stratospheric dynamics is also an important factor here and when the tropical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) gets in proper sync with the [September] Antarctic ozone season as it did from 1985 to 1989 and then again (15 years later) from 1999 to 2005 one gets big biennial oscillations in the ozone holes:

• e.g., 2017 Antarctic Ozone Hole: smallest in ~30 years!

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<<quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), is a quasiperiodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. The alternating wind regimes develop at the top of the lower stratosphere and propagate downwards at about 1 km (0.6 mi) per month until they are dissipated at the tropical tropopause. Downward motion of the easterlies is usually more irregular than that of the westerlies. The amplitude of the easterly phase is about twice as strong as that of the westerly phase. At the top of the vertical QBO domain, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found.>> https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/clima ... scillation

[Ann]

The weather may be mild here, but we keep getting strong winds and rain.

The owners of these bikes forgot that we do have a bicycle garage.

Strong gusts of wind got the better of these daffodils.

Ann