Apophis asteroid

[michaelwaltrip]

Hey. I know this might be "off topic". But I'm watching a documentary about asteroids and Apophis or is Apothis? Anyway, they are saying no hitting the Earth in 2029 and 2036. Any calculations on when it might hit the Earth? Is there something on APOD of Apophis? I wonder will it easily visible from Earth on one of these close fly-bys. Thanks!

[Chris Peterson]

Hey. I know this might be "off topic". But I'm watching a documentary about asteroids and Apophis or is Apothis? Anyway, they are saying no hitting the Earth in 2029 and 2036. Any calculations on when it might hit the Earth? Is there something on APOD of Apophis? I wonder will it easily visible from Earth on one of these close fly-bys. Thanks!

The problem isn't calculable. The result is too sensitive to initial conditions, meaning that it's only possible to project the position of the body with high enough accuracy to predict a collision for a short time. The next close pass after 2029 will be in 2068, which is long enough that the risk can only be stated as a probability (still millions to one).

The 2029 pass will be easily visible to the naked eye, looking rather like an artificial satellite.

[BMAONE23]

Here is an Orbit Simulation for Apophis

[Chris Peterson]

Here is an Orbit Simulation for Apophis

But keep in mind that there is an uncertainty in the position of the body, which increases as you get farther from the epoch of the orbital elements.