Summertime Arctic ice melting => Colder Winters for us

[neufer]

<<If you live nearly anywhere in North America, Europe, or Asia, it’s no news that December 2009 and early January 2010 were cold. This image illustrates how cold December was compared to the average of temperatures recorded in December between 2000 and 2008. Blue points to colder than average land surface temperatures, while red indicates warmer temperatures. Much of the Northern Hemisphere experienced cold land surface temperatures, but the Arctic was exceptionally warm. This weather pattern is a tale-tell sign of the Arctic Oscillation.



The Arctic Oscillation is a climate pattern that influences winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere. It is defined by the pressure difference between air at mid-latitudes (around 45 degrees North, about the latitude of Montreal, Canada or Bordeaux, France) and air over the Arctic. A low-pressure air mass dominates the Arctic, while high pressure systems sit over the mid-latitudes. The strength of the high- and low-pressure systems oscillates. When the systems are weaker than normal, the pressure difference between the Arctic and mid-latitudes decreases, allowing chilly Arctic air to slide south while warmer air creeps north. A weaker-than-normal Arctic Oscillation is said to be negative. When high and low pressure systems are strong, the Arctic Oscillation is positive.>>

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=42237
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=42172

The Day After Tomorrow (2004): <<A look at what the world would look like if the greenhouse effect and global warming continued. At the center of the story is a paleoclimatologist, Professor Jack Hall, who tries to save the world from the effects of global warming while also trying to get to his son, Sam, who was in New York City, when the city was overwhelmed by the chilling beginnings of the new Ice Age.>>

Recent high Arctic Oscillation mild mid latitude winters:

[harry]

G'day Neufer

Thank you for that info. Well done.

Does this mean it's not related to the CO 2 increase?

[neufer]

G'day Neufer

Thank you for that info. Well done.

Does this mean it's not related to the CO 2 increase?

I am suggesting that global warming could well result in colder northern hemisphere winters as in the movie _Day After Tomorrow_.

This is not altogether a bad thing (e.g., maintain the tundra, kill off bark beetles, etc.) but it will confuse people.

[Chris Peterson]

Does this mean it's not related to the CO 2 increase?

The CO2 increase has changed the Earth's energy balance, which in turn affects most or all natural climate cycles. It seems likely that the depth or frequency of the Arctic Oscillation is affected by global warming. I don't know how effective the current models are at relating the two, though. Certainly, models do show that global warming tends to produce colder winters over much of the northern hemisphere.

[harry]

G'day Neufer

File:Co2-temperature-plot.svg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Co2-t ... e-plot.svg

Compares the CO 2 and temp in the past 800 thousand years

There seems to be a cycle that man has not been involved with.

Although the CO 2 release by man may have increased the Co 2 in the air and the subsequent absorption by the oceans has increased the PH affecting the Coral growth.

Carbon dioxide
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dio ... atmosphere

NOAA states in their May 2008 "State of the science fact sheet for ocean acidification" that:
"The oceans have absorbed about 50% of the carbon dioxide (CO2) released from the burning of fossil fuels, resulting in chemical reactions that lower ocean pH. This has caused an increase in hydrogen ion (acidity) of about 30% since the start of the industrial age through a process known as “ocean acidification.” A growing number of studies have demonstrated adverse impacts on marine organisms, including:

The rate at which reef-building corals produce their skeletons decreases.
The ability of marine algae and free-swimming zooplankton to maintain protective shells is reduced.
The survival of larval marine species, including commercial fish and shellfish, is reduced."

Thinking aloud.
The Ice melting may also affect the oceanic currents and the heat transfer around the world.

[neufer]

File:Co2-temperature-plot.svg


Compares the CO 2 and temp in the past 800 thousand years

There seems to be a cycle that man has not been involved with.

Natural Milankovitch cycles in the earth's spin/orbital motion certainly contribute to ice ages. Colder Milankovitch ice age temperatures result in more CO₂ being absorbed by the oceans (an effect which lags the temperatures as in the plots above).

What all this means for today's record industrial CO₂ levels as a causal agent for temperature increases has yet to be determined; however, warm ocean temperatures releasing CO₂ can't be good.

The Ice melting may also affect the oceanic currents and the heat transfer around the world.

The sudden melting of the northern ice caps after the last ice age certainly flooded the oceans with light fresh water.
This flooding apparently shut down saline driven ocean circulations which, in turn, led to a temporary mini ice age called the Dryas:

<<The Younger Dryas saw a rapid return to glacial conditions in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere between 12,900–11,500 years before present (BP) in sharp contrast to the warming of the preceding interstadial deglaciation. It has been believed that the transitions each occurred over a period of a decade or so, but the onset may have been faster.>>

The movie _Day After Tomorrow_ was based upon a similar scenario of (man made) global warming shutting down saline driven ocean circulations thereby leading (counter intuitively) to a sudden mini ice age. However, such a scenario would probably require the unlikely total collapse of the Greenland Icecap. I am suggesting the more likely possibility that an summertime ice free Arctic Ocean might induce a strong negative wintertime Arctic Oscillation resulting (also counter intuitively) in cold Northern Hemisphere winters.

[harry]

G'day

Neufer I like the way you think.

Cannot argue with a person who has science back up.

Thinking aloud here:

In 1918 we had 1.6 G people and in 2010 we have about 7 G people.

The CO 2 may have gone up a little affecting the balance but in the opinion of the prof (name ??) who brought up the CO 2 greenhouse effect states that it is limited and not the cause of Global warming.

In addition Methane and other pollutants have increased to match the needs and wants of MAN.

Imagine all the forests cut down, the life stock for food, the waste that MAN generates and the Methane gas released from all.

Is this limited?
Could this effect Global warming

[BMAONE23]

Also imagine farmers in Australia being told by the government that they can not clear their land due to Carbon Sequestering

"Peter Spencer bought a farm south of Canberra in the early 1980’s. In the mid 1990’s new laws rolled into action that prevented land clearing. That meant, even though the land belonged to him, Peter could no longer clear the regrowth. Eighty percent of what he paid for was effectively confiscated. He received nothing in return and there was no way out. He couldn’t sell the property — who would buy a piece of land they have no right to use?"

[neufer]

Imagine all the forests cut down, the life stock for food, the waste that MAN generates and the Methane gas released from all.

Is this limited?
Could this effect Global warming

<<Methane is a relatively potent greenhouse gas; methane can trap about 20 times the heat of CO2. The abundance of methane in the Earth's atmosphere in 1998 was 1745 parts per billion, up from 700 ppb in 1750. In the same time period, CO2 increased from 278 to 365 parts per million. The radiative forcing effect due to this increase in methane abundance is about one-third of that of the CO2 increase. The Earth's crust contains huge amounts of methane. Large amounts of methane are produced anaerobically by methanogenesis. Other sources include mud volcanoes, which are connected with deep geological faults, landfill and livestock (primarily ruminants) from enteric fermentation.

Global warming has the potential to trigger the release of large amounts of methane, currently stored as methane clathrates and further cause Arctic methane release from permafrost. In prehistoric times, large methane excursions have been linked with dramatic shifts in the Earth's climate, notably during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum and during the Permian-Triassic extinction event, which was the worst ever mass extinction.>>

[harry]

G'day

Hello BMAone23 thats how the ball bounces in some areas. I have a friend who has land in the middle of Sydeny and can only use 30 % of the property to build on. The remainder is protective trees.

Hello Neufer

This methane seems to have a potential to WIND us down, so to speak.