StACase wrote:Disaster scenario? My crystal ball isn't that good, and I doubt that yours is either. As near as I can tell, the current temperature record through 2008 doesn't agree with the IPCC projections which are only a few years old. If you can't hit the broad side of a barn at 25 feet, you aren't going to hit the target at 100 yards. There's no way anyone with any sense should take the 100 year projections by the IPCC models as gospel.
Yearly records are completely useless. The shortest time scale that is used in models and predictions is decadal, and we are currently seeing a steady rise in temperature in decadal averages over the last couple centuries, more so this last half century. In particular, since we have a fair understanding of the role of greenhouse gases in producing this rise, it is not unreasonable to expect this trend to continue.
My opinion is that the U.S. (in its current form) could be largely taken down by a couple of major hurricanes. Like I said, civilization is fragile. Climate change is already creating political problems in the third world. Yes, I think these kinds of things can be considered disastrous.
Even if the worst case scenarios have only a few percent chance of happening, the ramifications are enormous. Most people would change their lifestyle if their doctor gave them a similar chance of survival over a few years.
