by neufer » Wed Sep 24, 2008 3:04 pm
When [
Q]uasi[
B]ienniel[
O]scillation equatorial 30mb. stratospheric winds are westerly
. (i.e., in {Venus like} superrotation) as it has been
. during the even years of the 21st century...
...the polar nighttime stratospheric Antarctic vortex is generally quite
stable and, hence, relatively unaffected by sunlight induced ozone destruction.
This made for
A LATE START for the Antarctic ozone hole as in 2002, 2004, 2006 & 2008:
____________________________
---------------------------------------
However, solar activity has a big (~7º C) UV heating effect on
destabilizing 1mb. stratopause temperatures:
which in turn has a big effect on the stability of the
springtime [October] Antarctic polar vortex...
with the
solar MAX year of 2002 causing a very early Antarctic ozone hole breakup
while the
solar MIN year of 2006 created a large stable springtime Antarctic ozone hole (despite reduced CFC levels).
[Moderate solar active 2004 lies in between these two.]
The next QBO westerly equatorial 30mb. stratospheric wind situation won't be until 2010 or 2011 by which time a destabilizing solar max will have returned.
And the next stabilizing solar minimum won't be until ~2017 by which time harmful CFC should be down significantly.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Hence the 2008 Antartic Ozone Hole should be the LAST of the big stable springtime Antarctic ozone holes.
When [[b]Q[/b]]uasi[[b]B[/b]]ienniel[[b]O[/b]]scillation equatorial 30mb. stratospheric winds are westerly
. (i.e., in {Venus like} superrotation) as it has been
. during the even years of the 21st century...
[list]Positive westerly QBO equatorial 30mb [i.e. [b]30/hPa[/b]] winds):
---------------------------------------
[img]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2008.gif[/img]
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2006.gif
.............................................
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2004.gif
.............................................
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2002.gif
---------------------------------------[/list]...the polar nighttime stratospheric Antarctic vortex is generally quite
[b] stable and, hence, relatively unaffected by sunlight induced ozone destruction.[/b]
This made for [b]A LATE START for the Antarctic ozone hole as in 2002, 2004, 2006 & 2008[/b]:
[img]http://www.temis.nl/protocols/o3hole2/sc-o3area220.gif[/img]
____________________________
---------------------------------------
However, solar activity has a big (~7º C) UV heating effect on [b]destabilizing 1mb. stratopause temperatures[/b]:[list]---------------------------------------
Solar minimum (normal 1mb. stratopause temperatures):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2008.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2006.gif
.............................................
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2004.gif
.............................................
Solar maximum (warm [b]1mb[/b] stratopause temperatures):
[img]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2002.gif[/img]
---------------------------------------[/list]which in turn has a big effect on the stability of the [b]springtime [October] Antarctic polar vortex[/b]...
with the [b]solar MAX[/b] year of 2002 causing a very early Antarctic ozone hole breakup
while the [b]solar MIN[/b] year of 2006 created a large stable springtime Antarctic ozone hole (despite reduced CFC levels).
[Moderate solar active 2004 lies in between these two.]
[img]http://www.temis.nl/protocols/o3hole2/sc-o3area220.gif[/img]
The next QBO westerly equatorial 30mb. stratospheric wind situation won't be until 2010 or 2011 by which time a destabilizing solar max will have returned.
And the next stabilizing solar minimum won't be until ~2017 by which time harmful CFC should be down significantly.
-------------------------------------------------------------
[b]Hence the 2008 Antartic Ozone Hole should be the LAST of the big stable springtime Antarctic ozone holes.[/b] :D