APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

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Expand view Topic review: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by justaguy » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:35 pm

I know that it is nothing particular, but anyway: Sept 15, 2017 is my 50th birthday. Thanks for a great birthday present! I really do enjoy that! :lol2:

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by Chris Peterson » Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:04 pm

Javachip3 wrote:
Chris Peterson wrote:...Almost certainly, there is something on the order of 100 trillion kilograms of U-238 in Saturn, which means that plutonium is continuously being created, in quantities that dwarf the 33 kg that will be introduced by the RTG burning up.
There is a lot of uncertainty in that estimate. But even if it is accurate, then using a uranium:plutonium ratio of a trillion, there could be on the order of 100 kg plutonium on Saturn pre-Cassini, and 33 kg does not seem so trivial.
It's more a question of whether there are tens of thousands of kilograms or millions of kilograms. But it doesn't matter. Even if there was zero plutonium on Saturn, adding 33 kg of it is utterly trivial.
I belabor this point because the thought process that we use to give ourselves permission to dump a highly hazardous material on Saturn is the same thought process that we have used to degrade and pollute our environment on Earth.
Why shouldn't we "give ourselves permission"? Saturn is ours to do with what we will. The only real responsibility we have is to ensure that we don't somehow damage it in a way that makes it harder for us to understand in the future (something we probably lack the capacity to do at this point). We have three options. We can not go at all, which is completely unacceptable. We can leave the probe in orbit where there's a real chance it will eventually hit a moon, which is scientifically irresponsible. Or we can dispose of the probe in Saturn, an action that has no negative consequences at all (as determined by people who know a lot more about this subject than you do).

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by neufer » Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:34 pm

Javachip3 wrote:
Chris Peterson wrote:
...Almost certainly, there is something on the order of 100 trillion kilograms of U-238 in Saturn, which means that plutonium is continuously being created, in quantities that dwarf the 33 kg that will be introduced by the RTG burning up.
There is a lot of uncertainty in that estimate. But even if it is accurate, then using a uranium:plutonium ratio of a trillion, there could be on the order of 100 kg plutonium on Saturn pre-Cassini, and 33 kg does not seem so trivial.
It is probably more reasonable to assume that from the ~100 trillion kilograms of U-238 in Saturn's hot dense core perhaps ~100 kilograms of P-238 are produced each year. With a half life of ~100 years that should result in ~20,000 kilograms of P-238. In any event, concern about trashing anyplace that is devoid of any real possibility of life is misplaced.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction wrote:
<<The Holocene extinction, otherwise referred to as the Sixth extinction or Anthropocene extinction, is the ongoing extinction event of species during the present Holocene epoch mainly due to human activity. The large number of extinctions span numerous families of plants and animals including mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles and arthropods. with widespread degradation of highly biodiverse habitats such as coral reefs and rainforest, as well as other areas, the vast majority are thought to be undocumented. According to the species-area theory and based on upper-bound estimating, the present rate of extinction may be up to 140,000 species per year, making it the greatest loss of biodiversity since the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event.

The Holocene extinction includes the disappearance of large land animals known as megafauna, starting at the end of the last Ice Age. Megafauna outside of the African continent, which did not evolve alongside humans, proved highly sensitive to the introduction of new predation, and many died out shortly after early humans began spreading and hunting across the Earth (additionally, many African species have also gone extinct in the Holocene). These extinctions, occurring near the Pleistocene–Holocene boundary, are sometimes referred to as the Quaternary extinction event.

The arrival of humans on different continents coincide with megafaunal extinction. The most popular theory is that human overhunting species added to existing stress conditions. Although there is debate on how much human predation affected their decline, certain population declines have been directly correlated with human activity, such as the extinction events of New Zealand and Hawaii. Aside from humans, climate change may have been a driving factor in the megafaunal extinctions, especially at the end of the Quaternary.

The ecology of humanity has been noted as being that of an unprecedented "global superpredator" that regularly preys on the adults of other apex predators and has worldwide effects on food webs. Extinctions of species have occurred on every land mass and ocean, with many famous examples within Africa, Asia, Europe, Australia, North and South America, and on smaller islands. Overall, the Holocene extinction can be characterized by the human impact on the environment. The Holocene extinction continues into the 21st century, with meat consumption, overfishing, ocean acidification and the amphibian crisis being a few broader examples of an almost universal, cosmopolitan decline in biodiversity. A ballooning human population along with profligate consumption are considered to be the primary drivers of this rapid decline.>>

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by Javachip3 » Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:02 am

Chris Peterson wrote:...Almost certainly, there is something on the order of 100 trillion kilograms of U-238 in Saturn, which means that plutonium is continuously being created, in quantities that dwarf the 33 kg that will be introduced by the RTG burning up.
There is a lot of uncertainty in that estimate. But even if it is accurate, then using a uranium:plutonium ratio of a trillion, there could be on the order of 100 kg plutonium on Saturn pre-Cassini, and 33 kg does not seem so trivial.

I belabor this point because the thought process that we use to give ourselves permission to dump a highly hazardous material on Saturn is the same thought process that we have used to degrade and pollute our environment on Earth.

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by Ann » Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:58 am

Javachip3 wrote:Ann (and Neufer), I did indeed insert those all-caps bold-face words inside Neufer's quote, as is common practice when replying to a post in online forums. After I posted my reply and saw how it looked, I saw that there was the potential for misunderstanding, so I attempted to edit or delete my post, but could not find a way to do either of those things as a guest user. Thank you for allowing me to clarify.
Thanks for explaining.

Ann

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by Javachip3 » Mon Jan 30, 2017 5:17 am

Ann (and Neufer), I did indeed insert those all-caps bold-face words inside Neufer's quote, as is common practice when replying to a post in online forums. After I posted my reply and saw how it looked, I saw that there was the potential for misunderstanding, so I attempted to edit or delete my post, but could not find a way to do either of those things as a guest user. Thank you for allowing me to clarify.

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by Chris Peterson » Sun Jan 29, 2017 3:40 pm

Javachip3 wrote:On Earth, there may be a few naturally occurring plutonium atoms for every trillion uranium atoms. Saturn is believed to have a rocky core, but this is not confirmed, nor is its chemical composition known.
The figure of one out of a trillion atoms being U-238 represents a cosmic abundance, not a value observed on Earth. This amount was present in the pre-solar nebula from which the Solar System formed, and there is no mechanism that would have separated it such that none ended up in the gas giants. We do, in fact, have a pretty good idea what elements and elemental abundances make up Saturn, just not the details of the specific chemistry and distribution. Almost certainly, there is something on the order of 100 trillion kilograms of U-238 in Saturn, which means that plutonium is continuously being created, in quantities that dwarf the 33 kg that will be introduced by the RTG burning up.

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by Ann » Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:17 am

Javachip3 wrote:
neufer wrote:
  • 1) About one in every trillion atoms is Uranium-238. NOT ON SATURN

    2) Plutonium-238 was synthesized on Earth by Glenn Seaborg IN THE LABORATORY by bombarding uranium-238 with high energy deuterons(, creating neptunium-238, which then decays to form plutonium-238).

    3) Plutonium-238 is synthesized in Saturn every day from naturally occurring Uranium-238 and high energy deuterons due to natural radioactivity, cosmic rays, etc. NO EVIDENCE OF THIS
On Earth, there may be a few naturally occurring plutonium atoms for every trillion uranium atoms. Saturn is believed to have a rocky core, but this is not confirmed, nor is its chemical composition known. At the very least, it is possible that the 33 kg of plutonium aboard Cassini may be nontrivial compared to the total naturally occurring plutonium (if any) on Saturn.
It is not okay to change neufer's quote by adding your own comments inside his quote.

So, NOT ON SATURN was added by you, IN THE LABORATORY was added by you, and NO EVIDENCE OF THIS was added by you.

We can never have any sort of honest discussion if we don't respect what the other person said and didn't say.

Don't attribute your own opinions to neufer! Don't add words inside his quote!

Ann

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by Javachip3 » Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:34 am

neufer wrote:
  • 1) About one in every trillion atoms is Uranium-238. NOT ON SATURN

    2) Plutonium-238 was synthesized on Earth by Glenn Seaborg IN THE LABORATORY by bombarding uranium-238 with high energy deuterons(, creating neptunium-238, which then decays to form plutonium-238).

    3) Plutonium-238 is synthesized in Saturn every day from naturally occurring Uranium-238 and high energy deuterons due to natural radioactivity, cosmic rays, etc. NO EVIDENCE OF THIS
On Earth, there may be a few naturally occurring plutonium atoms for every trillion uranium atoms. Saturn is believed to have a rocky core, but this is not confirmed, nor is its chemical composition known. At the very least, it is possible that the 33 kg of plutonium aboard Cassini may be nontrivial compared to the total naturally occurring plutonium (if any) on Saturn.

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by neufer » Sun Jan 29, 2017 5:45 am

geckzilla wrote:
You are never gonna argue an essentialist's mind out of essentialism with facts and things like that.
KING LEAR: First let me talk with this philosopher.

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by geckzilla » Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:06 pm

You are never gonna argue an essentialist's mind out of essentialism with facts and things like that.

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by neufer » Sat Jan 28, 2017 1:53 pm

Javachip3 wrote:
Chris Peterson wrote:
More total mass of Earth material has been ejected to other planets by natural phenomena than by the deliberate actions of humans. And there's nothing found in any of it, natural or man-made, that isn't already out there in much greater quantities.
I disagree. Currently there may not be a single atom of plutonium-238 on Saturn. That will change on September 15.
  • 1) About one in every trillion atoms is Uranium-238.

    2) Plutonium-238 was synthesized on Earth by Glenn Seaborg by bombarding uranium-238 with high energy deuterons(, creating neptunium-238, which then decays to form plutonium-238).

    3) Plutonium-238 is synthesized in Saturn every day from naturally occurring Uranium-238 and high energy deuterons due to natural radioactivity, cosmic rays, etc.

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by Javachip3 » Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:14 am

Chris Peterson wrote:More total mass of Earth material has been ejected to other planets by natural phenomena than by the deliberate actions of humans. And there's nothing found in any of it, natural or man-made, that isn't already out there in much greater quantities.
I disagree. Currently there may not be a single atom of plutonium-238 on Saturn. That will change on September 15.

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by geoffmo » Fri Jan 27, 2017 5:54 am

A pig. In gumboots. Lives on Saturn?

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by MarkBour » Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:53 am

neufer wrote:That's a lot of F...Ring orbits :!:
Yep. And in April, it will be done with the whole F...Ring lot of them. :D

I just noticed that the diagram notes that the final fouetté in this dance will happen about "noon local time", a nice touch. Will Hubble try to view a fireball? It seems like it would be easier to see if the entry was rotated to a sunrise or sunset position. Will local noon give Cassini its best final readings/photo? I wonder when it will send its last bit of data. I still don't think NASA should murder this hero. I think in a couple of hundred years, it would fetch a really nice price as a collector's item.

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by neufer » Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:21 pm

MarkBour wrote:
neufer wrote:
How many F...Ring orbits is Cassini going to do?
Although this site is throwing an https error, it looks good:
http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/gran ... e/overview
According to that site, there will be 20 F-Ring orbits, but that process started on Nov 30, so, if they take about a week each, it must have already done about half of them (?) Then there will be 22 dives "beneath" the rings ("beneath" here meaning a periapsis closer to Saturn than the rings) and the site has a nice countdown clock.
  • That's a lot of F...Ring orbits :!:

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by MarkBour » Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:22 pm

bls0326 wrote:what a dance.
I had the same reaction. It's a nice plan, and I think it will get some really good "ring-side" data. I wonder what the probability is that it might have a serious collision before it gets through with this dance. I assume NASA planners know that it will be just far enough away from the F-ring to have only a very tiny chance of a collision.
neufer wrote:How many F...Ring orbits is Cassini going to do?
Although this site is throwing an https error, it looks good:
http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/gran ... e/overview
According to that site, there will be 20 F-Ring orbits, but that process started on Nov 30, so, if they take about a week each, it must have already done about half of them (?) Then there will be 22 dives "beneath" the rings ("beneath" here meaning a periapsis closer to Saturn than the rings) and the site has a nice countdown clock.

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by suicidejunkie » Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:54 pm

There is something to be said about the idea of launching a hundred Saturn Vs to assemble a Saturn V in orbit and send it to Saturn in order to return a small probe from Saturn.

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by Chris Peterson » Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:07 pm

Ann wrote:
Chris Peterson wrote:
neufer wrote:
  • Those Jovial guys would just laugh it off.
Of course they would. They live next door, and are unaffected.
Next door, I don't know... never less than 4 A.U. away, and probably never even that close.
Well, that microbe in your belly probably says the same thing about your next door neighbor!

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by Steve Dutch » Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:06 pm

So, for the folks who posted a few days ago on the Daphnis image about wanting close-ups of the rings, this will be your best shot.

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by Ann » Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:48 pm

Chris Peterson wrote:
neufer wrote:
Javachip3 wrote: It's nice that we are crashing Cassini into Saturn to prevent biological contamination of any liquid water oceans on Saturn's moons. But, has anyone considered the consequences of dropping 33 kg of plutonium-238 onto the heads of highly intelligent Saturnians?
  • Those Jovial guys would just laugh it off.
Of course they would. They live next door, and are unaffected.
Next door, I don't know... never less than 4 A.U. away, and probably never even that close.

Ann

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by Chris Peterson » Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:45 pm

staarchild wrote:it is best to bring cassini probe back to earth for recycling. people who think that they have the right to abandon space probes to interstellar space are practicing environmental cannibalism. if nasa esa cannot program cassini to return to earth then extraterrestrial alien should be summoned to retrieve the hardware and bring it back. for the second time since the earth was created the elements comprising the space probe hardware shall have paswsed through the earth's event horizon. a similar situation exists for the other abandoned space probes: new horizons; dawn space probe; herschel; planck; voyager 1 & 2; pioneer 10 ... ...
More total mass of Earth material has been ejected to other planets by natural phenomena than by the deliberate actions of humans. And there's nothing found in any of it, natural or man-made, that isn't already out there in much greater quantities.

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by Chris Peterson » Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:42 pm

neufer wrote:
Javachip3 wrote: It's nice that we are crashing Cassini into Saturn to prevent biological contamination of any liquid water oceans on Saturn's moons. But, has anyone considered the consequences of dropping 33 kg of plutonium-238 onto the heads of highly intelligent Saturnians?
  • Those Jovial guys would just laugh it off.
Of course they would. They live next door, and are unaffected.

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by bls0326 » Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:12 pm

what a dance.

Re: APOD: Cassini's Grand Finale Tour at Saturn (2017 Jan 25)

by staarchild » Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:53 pm

it is best to bring cassini probe back to earth for recycling. people who think that they have the right to abandon space probes to interstellar space are practicing environmental cannibalism. if nasa esa cannot program cassini to return to earth then extraterrestrial alien should be summoned to retrieve the hardware and bring it back. for the second time since the earth was created the elements comprising the space probe hardware shall have paswsed through the earth's event horizon. a similar situation exists for the other abandoned space probes: new horizons; dawn space probe; herschel; planck; voyager 1 & 2; pioneer 10 ... ...

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