by Big_Lew » Fri Nov 20, 2015 1:28 am
Chris Peterson wrote:Ann wrote:Chris Peterson wrote:Absurd? No. Likely? Not at all. 1000 years ago we understood nearly nothing about the Universe. Now, our understanding is rich, and much of it is nearly complete.
Nevertheless, it seems a little risky to me to say that much of our understanding of the universe is nearly complete. I get what Chris is saying, and I agree, too. But let's not forget this quote by
Lord Kelvin, which is sobering even if it should turn out to be embellished or misquoted by
the page where I found it:
"There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now, All that remains is more and more precise measurement."
Well, there's no evidence that Kelvin actually said this. But there was a sense of this running through late 19th century physics. For myself, I do not find it sobering at all, given how radically different science was 150 years ago. I am quite comfortable making the argument that much of our physical understanding is nearly complete. Despite the fact that our rate of knowledge growth remains exponential, it remains true that our most fundamental theory- gravity, quantum mechanics, particle physics- is hardly changing in substance, and has been stable for decades, approaching a century. Nothing like that has ever been the case before. I think it is a pretty safe assumption that our understanding of these things will continue to improve, but that the basic theory will not change again. At this point we're looking at refinement, and in a few cases large holes that still need to be filled in. But probably not the complete revision of major theories.
This is true, but I quibble with your semantics here. Chris: If you look at the progress in physics from the 50,000' level, what has happened is that we have been surprised time after time by probing deeper into nature (relativity, quantum mechanics, etc.). And, most importantly, none of those refinements invalidated the prior theories, rather they expanded them into regimes of energy and measurement that we had been unable to explore and revealed that the correct (at the time) theories were only approximations in the limited regimes of energy and measurement available at the time they were formulated. As our technology improves (LHC, anyone?), I posit that we can surely expect more stunning surprises of similar impact like Relativity and Quantum Mechanics. For example, the Double-Slit Experiment (in all its incarnations - straight, quantum eraser, delayed choice, etc.) richly demonstrates our profound ignorance of the true underlying nature of the universe.
String Theory and Quantum Loop Gravity both come readily to mind...
[quote="Chris Peterson"][quote="Ann"][quote="Chris Peterson"]Absurd? No. Likely? Not at all. 1000 years ago we understood nearly nothing about the Universe. Now, our understanding is rich, and much of it is nearly complete.[/quote]
Nevertheless, it seems a little risky to me to say that much of our understanding of the universe is nearly complete. I get what Chris is saying, and I agree, too. But let's not forget this quote by [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Thomson,_1st_Baron_Kelvin]Lord Kelvin[/url], which is sobering even if it should turn out to be embellished or misquoted by [url=http://zapatopi.net/kelvin/quotes/]the page where I found it[/url]:
[quote]"There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now, All that remains is more and more precise measurement."[/quote][/quote]
Well, there's no evidence that Kelvin actually said this. But there was a sense of this running through late 19th century physics. For myself, I do not find it sobering at all, given how radically different science was 150 years ago. I am quite comfortable making the argument that much of our physical understanding is nearly complete. Despite the fact that our rate of knowledge growth remains exponential, it remains true that our most fundamental theory- gravity, quantum mechanics, particle physics- is hardly changing in substance, and has been stable for decades, approaching a century. Nothing like that has ever been the case before. I think it is a pretty safe assumption that our understanding of these things will continue to improve, but that the basic theory will not change again. At this point we're looking at refinement, and in a few cases large holes that still need to be filled in. But probably not the complete revision of major theories.[/quote]
This is true, but I quibble with your semantics here. Chris: If you look at the progress in physics from the 50,000' level, what has happened is that we have been surprised time after time by probing deeper into nature (relativity, quantum mechanics, etc.). And, most importantly, none of those refinements invalidated the prior theories, rather they expanded them into regimes of energy and measurement that we had been unable to explore and revealed that the correct (at the time) theories were only approximations in the limited regimes of energy and measurement available at the time they were formulated. As our technology improves (LHC, anyone?), I posit that we can surely expect more stunning surprises of similar impact like Relativity and Quantum Mechanics. For example, the Double-Slit Experiment (in all its incarnations - straight, quantum eraser, delayed choice, etc.) richly demonstrates our profound ignorance of the true underlying nature of the universe.
String Theory and Quantum Loop Gravity both come readily to mind...