APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

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Expand view Topic review: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by Raven » Sat Jan 19, 2013 6:19 am

inertnet wrote:They might think that they're unique too.
Goldilocks thought that only Little Bear's stuff was "juuuust right!"

But Papa Bear's stuff was just right for Papa Bear, and Mama Bear's stuff was just right for Mama Bear.

That aspect of the "Goldilocks" story is worth remembering.

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by Raven » Sat Jan 19, 2013 6:06 am

This histogram depicts the estimated fraction of stars that have close orbiting planets of various sizes. The number of Sun-like stars with Earth-like planets in Earth-like orbits is surely much less,....
Closer orbits around colder stars, or more distant orbits around hotter stars, should provide equally "habitable zones", to adjust the odds of finding livable Earth-like planets back up again.

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by inertnet » Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:13 am

ddale51 wrote:Earth is a "Goldilocks" planet. Everything is just right. Just right air. Just right sun. Just right gas giant neighbors. Just right size moon. Just right rotation rate, axial tilt, composition, weather patterns. Just right, well, everything needed to support advanced life. There are nearly countless factors that had to be just right for creatures like us to exist on this planet. Earth is truly a miracle. Who knows? it's conceivable it may be unique in all the cosmos. I believe it was created to be humanity's home. You may disagree of course; but you also have to concede that this beautiful blue marble is a wonder indeed.
Yes, but if a planet exists somewhere, with slightly different air, different sun, different moon etc. If life evolved there too, they could say exactly the same thing. They might think that they're unique too. We exist because circumstances have been exactly right for us to evolve, but that doesn't mean that ours are the only circumstances where the emergence of intelligent life would have been been possible.

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by Macropus » Tue Jan 15, 2013 4:54 am

I love this site but not the occasional bit of easily avoidable sloppiness, such as the "fractions" on the y axis appearing as whole numbers. Likewise what does "size" mean on the x axis? Is it mass, volume, diameter...? It was always drilled in to me that graphs mean nothing without units of measurement and they certainly would have helped here.

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by neufer » Mon Jan 14, 2013 4:05 pm

Cal wrote:
I'm a huge fan of APOD, but I must say this is one of the most disappointing "pictures". This graph is poorly designed for actual scientific study. As others have pointed out, the Y axis is mislabeled, and the values on each bar don't match the text. I also noticed that the graph is physically distorted: the horizontal lines aren't actually horizontal, but converge toward the right, so the scale on the right side of the graph is not the same as the left.

I recommend that anyone who wants to draw a conclusion from this graph should not; instead, look up the original data and study it carefully.
Unfortunately, the folks in charge of press (media) releases for large scientific organizations
are primarily publicity agents who know very little about either science or math.
http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/pao/ wrote:

The [Harvard/Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics] Public Affairs Office (PAO)
issues press (media) releases and other materials pertaining to CfA's research and projects.

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by Cal » Mon Jan 14, 2013 1:46 pm

I'm a huge fan of APOD, but I must say this is one of the most disappointing "pictures". This graph is poorly designed for actual scientific study. As others have pointed out, the Y axis is mislabeled, and the values on each bar don't match the text. I also noticed that the graph is physically distorted: the horizontal lines aren't actually horizontal, but converge toward the right, so the scale on the right side of the graph is not the same as the left.

I recommend that anyone who wants to draw a conclusion from this graph should not; instead, look up the original data and study it carefully.

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by xarkonnen » Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:53 am

hohoho, "Please give another globe" is not a joke now!

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by ro_star » Mon Jan 14, 2013 7:58 am

should say percentage not fraction!

on a planet twice as massive of course you would not weigh twice as much! look up Surface_gravity on wikipedia.

look up planetary factsheets - if earth gravity is 1 and mars is 0.38, is mars 0.38 the mass of earth? of course not!

ALL stars have planets - at least 8 each (our star being an average example)

if you read the article carefully, the one linked at kepler.nasa.gov, you see that these PERCENTAGES refer to planets with orbits up to 400 days; once telescopes are available to see all planets, we'll know ALL stars have planets, would be highly improbable to find one without planets

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by geckzilla » Mon Jan 14, 2013 5:29 am

Made for bacteria or made OF bacteria?

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by neufer » Sun Jan 13, 2013 2:24 pm

geckzilla wrote:
And yet we also know it was not always just right for human habitation as we currently know it. Humans, along with all modern animals, evolved into and with their own niches, which have also changed dramatically over time.
The Earth was made for bacteria.

Heck...everything from humans to termites & cockroaches was made for bacteria:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacteria wrote: <<The ancestors of modern bacteria were single-celled microorganisms that were the first forms of life to appear on Earth, about 4 billion years ago. For about 3 billion years, all organisms were microscopic, and bacteria and archaea were the dominant forms of life. Although bacterial fossils exist, such as stromatolites, their lack of distinctive morphology prevents them from being used to examine the history of bacterial evolution. However, gene sequences can be used to reconstruct the bacterial phylogeny, and these studies indicate that bacteria diverged first from the archaeal/eukaryotic lineage.

Bacteria constitute a large domain of prokaryotic microorganisms. Typically a few micrometres in length, bacteria have a wide range of shapes, ranging from spheres to rods and spirals. Bacteria are present in most habitats on the planet, growing in soil, acidic hot springs, radioactive waste, water, and deep in the Earth's crust, as well as in organic matter and the live bodies of plants and animals, providing outstanding examples of mutualism in the digestive tracts of humans, termites and cockroaches. There are approximately ten times as many bacterial cells in the human flora as there are human cells in the body, with large numbers of bacteria on the skin and as gut flora.

There are typically 40 million bacterial cells in a gram of soil and a million bacterial cells in a millilitre of fresh water; in all, there are approximately five nonillion (5×1030)* bacteria on Earth, forming a biomass that exceeds that of all plants and animals. Bacteria are vital in recycling nutrients, with many steps in nutrient cycles depending on these organisms, such as the fixation of nitrogen from the atmosphere and putrefaction. In the biological communities surrounding hydrothermal vents and cold seeps, bacteria provide the nutrients needed to sustain life by converting dissolved compounds such as hydrogen sulphide and methane.>>

* Note: Sagan's number is the number of stars in the observable universe presently estimated to be ~70 sextillion (7×1022).

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by rstevenson » Sun Jan 13, 2013 2:09 pm

ddale51 wrote:Earth is a "Goldilocks" planet. ...
That's a restating of the Rare Earth hypothesis, about which you can read at this Wikipedia page and its many linked-to pages and articles. Here's the opening definition:
In planetary astronomy and astrobiology, the Rare Earth hypothesis argues that the emergence of complex multicellular life (metazoa) on Earth (and, as follows, intelligence) required an improbable combination of astrophysical and geological events and circumstances. The hypothesis argues that complex extraterrestrial life requires an Earth-like planet with similar circumstance and that few if any such planets exist.
Which contrasts with...
The principle of mediocrity concludes that the Earth is a typical rocky planet in a typical planetary system, located in a non-exceptional region of a common barred-spiral galaxy. Hence it is probable that the universe teems with complex life.
At this point in time, choosing one of those as "true" is a philosophical decision, not a scientific one. Perhaps in a few thousand years we'll have enough data to state a conclusion.

Rob

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by BDanielMayfield » Sun Jan 13, 2013 11:10 am

George K wrote:
George K wrote:You say, "The number of Sun-like stars with Earth-like planets in Earth-like orbits is surely much less..." but I don't see the logic in that statement. What is counted in this APOD are close-in orbits, which is a restricted set; "Earth-like orbits" (presumably in the "habitable zone") is a different restricted set. How do we know that the number in the first set is fewer than the number in the second? In the solar system at least, there is a lot less space in the first area than the second.

Sorry, I meat to say, How do we know the number in the first set is greater than the number in the second? The second set, planets with Earth-like orbits, are harder to detect with current techniques, so we count fewer of them, but that doesn't mean there are intrinsically fewer of these planets. It's the usual selection-effect issue.
That's very true George. Detecting solar systems like ours is still beyond our abilities, so it's too soon to say that systems like ours are rare, IMO.
ddale51 wrote:Earth is a "Goldilocks" planet. Everything is just right. Just right air. Just right sun. Just right gas giant neighbors. Just right size moon. Just right rotation rate, axial tilt, composition, weather patterns. Just right, well, everything needed to support advanced life. There are nearly countless factors that had to be just right for creatures like us to exist on this planet. Earth is truly a miracle. Who knows? it's conceivable it may be unique in all the cosmos. I believe it was created to be humanity's home. You may disagree of course; but you also have to concede that this beautiful blue marble is a wonder indeed.
I couldn't agree more. Well stated. :thumb_up:
BDanielMayfield wrote:
Stefan48 wrote:With the talk about other planets and their relative size to earth, my question is - (speaking of size only) on how large of a planet can a human live comfortably? Can we live comfortably, or maybe with minor adjustment needed, live on a planet twice as big as earth? On a planet twice the size of earth, would I weight twice as much, or might I weight 1.5 times as much? Or what would I weigh?
That’s a good question, for while these planets are far too hot, many others have been and will continue to be discovered that have orbits in the “habitable zone” of the stars they orbit. Ignoring cases of rapid rotation, the force that something would feel on the surface of a planet depends on only two factors; the planet’s mass and its radius. The more massive a planet is, the greater the G force would be, but this is somewhat counter-acted by the size of a planet, because this force drops with increasing distance. Therefore you cannot accurately say that we would be twice as heavy on a world that was twice the radius of Earth, nor can this be said if the world is twice the mass of Earth. Both planetary mass and size must be known for surface gravity to be calculated. I don’t remember the exact formula, I’m sure someone will post it soon if they haven’t already done so.
Since no one else supplied the answer I looked it up. The formula for the gravitational force at the surface of a planet is F=GM/r^2 where G is the gravitation constant, M is the mass of the planet and r is the distance to the planet's center (radius). So the weight of an object on a planet is directly proportional to the planet's mass, but it's inversely proportional to the square of the radius. I hope that helps answer your question Stefan.

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by geckzilla » Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:23 am

And yet we also know it was not always just right for human habitation as we currently know it. Humans, along with all modern animals, evolved into and with their own niches, which have also changed dramatically over time.

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by ddale51 » Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:10 am

Earth is a "Goldilocks" planet. Everything is just right. Just right air. Just right sun. Just right gas giant neighbors. Just right size moon. Just right rotation rate, axial tilt, composition, weather patterns. Just right, well, everything needed to support advanced life. There are nearly countless factors that had to be just right for creatures like us to exist on this planet. Earth is truly a miracle. Who knows? it's conceivable it may be unique in all the cosmos. I believe it was created to be humanity's home. You may disagree of course; but you also have to concede that this beautiful blue marble is a wonder indeed.

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by GoddardOffTheGround » Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:53 pm

neufer wrote:
GoddardOffTheGround wrote:
In short, looking for a DOUBLE planetary Earth-Moon system, which has made the Earth be what the Earth is, may, unfortunately, be incredibly rare, but also might be one of the critical requirements for life to evolve and flourish.
Some people believe that there is another such "planetary" system:
Well, although Pluto-Charon might be considered a double planet, they both lack all of the criteria for an Earthlike environment. What I was hinting was that the focus is much on determining if planets are like Earth. Perhaps the focus should be determining if some planets like Earth have a very large moon nearby. As Asimov suggests, LAWKI (Life As We Know It) would probably not be possible without our Moon. How much probable? Who knows yet?

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by George K » Sat Jan 12, 2013 7:36 pm

George K wrote:You say, "The number of Sun-like stars with Earth-like planets in Earth-like orbits is surely much less..." but I don't see the logic in that statement. What is counted in this APOD are close-in orbits, which is a restricted set; "Earth-like orbits" (presumably in the "habitable zone") is a different restricted set. How do we know that the number in the first set is fewer than the number in the second? In the solar system at least, there is a lot less space in the first area than the second.

Sorry, I meat to say, How do we know the number in the first set is greater than the number in the second? The second set, planets with Earth-like orbits, are harder to detect with current techniques, so we count fewer of them, but that doesn't mean there are intrinsically fewer of these planets. It's the usual selection-effect issue.

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by Anthony Barreiro » Sat Jan 12, 2013 6:18 pm

I'm reminded of Plato's parable of the cave. We're sitting here in the dark, watching nearly infinitesimal dips in the brightnesses of stars in a tiny patch of our galaxy. The patterns we're able to detect and the inferences we can draw from them are truly exciting! But it seems much too early to speculate too grandly about life on other planets and our prospects for interstellar colonization. To date, there is one body in the universe known to harbor life. It's hard to do inferential statistics with a sample size of one.

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by Doum » Sat Jan 12, 2013 6:16 pm

http://asterisk.apod.com/viewtopic.php?p=190587#p190587

"Planets closer to their stars are easier to find because they transit more frequently. As more data are gathered, planets in larger orbits will come to light. In particular, Kepler's extended mission should allow it to spot Earth-sized planets at greater distances, including Earth-like orbits in the habitable zone. "

So more earth size planet might be find. The number of earth size planet will increase as the capacity to detect them grow and the time to see the transit come. Billion of earth size planets will add up. Cool. :D

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by rstevenson » Sat Jan 12, 2013 5:53 pm

GoddardOffTheGround wrote:... it's the disproportionate Moon -- a satellite nearly 1/4 the size of the primary planet -- which has never been observed in any other system, ...
True, but we simply have no way to detect such moons around smaller rocky planets in the "water zone" of any extra-solar system -- yet. We will have soon, and since there's no particular reason to assume such moons are rare (and no reason to assume they're not rare either) we'll just have to wait and see.

If we eventually find that such moons are extremely rare, and that life only exists in their presence, your suggestion will become a conclusion. But not yet.

Rob

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by Chris Peterson » Sat Jan 12, 2013 5:39 pm

drollere wrote:i'm interested to see how the new population distributions affect the drake equation (or its equivalent).
Not much, I would think.

The problem with the Drake equation is that the term for habitable planets has never been dominant. It is the terms associated with the probability of life forming in the first place that are so uncertain, and this new data does nothing to change that.

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by Orange Eater » Sat Jan 12, 2013 5:21 pm

neufer wrote:
GoddardOffTheGround wrote:
In short, looking for a DOUBLE planetary Earth-Moon system, which has made the Earth be what the Earth is, may, unfortunately, be incredibly rare, but also might be one of the critical requirements for life to evolve and flourish.
Some people believe that there is another such "planetary" system:
Perhaps a "planetary" system where an Earth-like moon orbits a gas giant in a star's habitable zone would meet the criteria for the evolution of life (or something like terrestrial life) as in James Cameron's "Avatar".

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by drollere » Sat Jan 12, 2013 4:40 pm

i'm interested to see how the new population distributions affect the drake equation (or its equivalent). i haven't yet seen data published in a useable format; the probability of life evolving on earth mass planets depends on many factors, including the parent star spectral type, the mass limits for holding an atmosphere and forming a solid surface, the expected quantity of water in protoplanetary disks that produce earth sized (rather than jupiter sized or binary star) systems, and so on. i used to believe that there were perhaps half a dozen technically advanced civilizations at any epoch in our galaxy of ~100 billion stars. now i might think it's perhaps a full dozen. the uncertainties are certainly shifting from astronomical factors to mechanisms of biological evolution, and the question of how useful a technically advanced civilization really is to the career of a predator species. for all we can tell, technical culture may accelerate a predator species through great achievements and into prompt extinction: at present, humans have been around for a tiny fraction of the typical species endurance of millions of years. but the astronomical data help to limit the range of probabilities.

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by neufer » Sat Jan 12, 2013 4:08 pm

GoddardOffTheGround wrote:
In short, looking for a DOUBLE planetary Earth-Moon system, which has made the Earth be what the Earth is, may, unfortunately, be incredibly rare, but also might be one of the critical requirements for life to evolve and flourish.
Some people believe that there is another such "planetary" system:

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by GoddardOffTheGround » Sat Jan 12, 2013 3:42 pm

Many years ago, Isaac Asimov wrote a book entitled "The Double Planet" in which he contended that Earth is truly a special case. Although there may be many Earth-like planets, what makes our Earth unique, it's the disproportionate Moon -- a satellite nearly 1/4 the size of the primary planet -- which has never been observed in any other system, may be a critical factor. Having the Moon as large and as close as it is, he contends, is only one of the very many factors which enabled life to evolve. Firstly, the Moon acted as a shield to absorb or deflect much of the cosmic detritus floating around during creation, stuff that might have otherwise made it to Earth and destroyed whatever life happened to be evolving. Secondly, the Moon induced huge tidal forces upon Earth. When things finally settled down and the oceans began to support life, the tides enabled life to slowly adapt to the land. Finally, he contends, the Moon serves as a springboard for humanity to reach the rest of space. How difficult would it be to go from Earth to Mars in one shot?

In short, looking for a DOUBLE planetary Earth-Moon system, which has made the Earth be what the Earth is, may, unfortunately, be incredibly rare, but also might be one of the critical requirements for life to evolve and flourish.

Re: APOD: Ten Billion Earths (2013 Jan 12)

by neufer » Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:44 pm

inertnet wrote:
I'm wondering how life would have developed if the Earth had more mass.

I guess that fish as we know them would all sink to the bottom.
... I guess swimming would be out of the question for us.
Swimmers don't care much about gravity (just their density vs-a-vis water).
...which is why blue whales can be as large as they are.
inertnet wrote:
Would plants grow as high as ours?
Not land plants that depend upon ground water:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sequoia_sempervirens wrote:
<<Sequoia sempervirens includes the tallest trees on Earth. The current tallest tree is Hyperion, measuring at 379.3 feet (115.6 m). A tree claimed to be 424.08 ft (129.26 m) was felled in November 1886 by the Elk River Mill and Lumber Co. at the south fork of Elk River in Humboldt County. The theoretical maximum potential height of coast redwoods is limited to between 122 and 130 m (400 and 427 ft), due to gravity and the friction between water and the conduits through which it flows.>>
inertnet wrote:
Would land creatures be built more massively, or lighter than we are?
Would huge dinosaurs have been possible? Or birds?
Land creatures including dinosaurs would be smaller and (for the same size) built more massively.

Flying creatures including dinosaurs (i.e., birds) would be smaller and (for the same size) built less massively.

Spiders & insects don't care much about gravity (just the surface tension of water).
inertnet wrote:
If the average planet mass is higher than ours,
I guess that beings from other planets would on average be stronger than us.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krypton_%28planet%29 wrote:
<<Krypton was shown to have been a planet similar to Earth, older by eons and possessed of all the beneficial progress that implied. All Kryptonians possessed a level of heightened physical abilities, including super-strength and super-speed.>>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Wobegon wrote:
<<Lake Wobegon, Minnesota: "the little town that time forgot, and the decades cannot improve," and "where all the women are strong, all the men are good looking, and all the children are above average." The Lake Wobegon effect, a natural human tendency to overestimate one's capabilities, is named after the town.>>

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