by Altair » Wed May 09, 2012 4:54 pm
No Chris, America does NOT have an active program to put humans into orbit. It purchases launch seats from foreign countries at extortionate prices. Any nation with the funding can do the same. Before you even bring up SpaceX or SNC or CST-100 saving the day, you must admit that under a BEST case scenario none of these projects will fly humans for at least another 5 years (NASA's own estimate). Add to that a hostile congress that wants most of these potential commercial crew services killed off by cutting the budget for it by 2/3rds, and openly calling for NASA to simply sole source the whole thing out to Boeing.
As for NASA's own future Orion spacecraft, NASA has openly admitted that Orion will not fly until its giant SLS launcher is ready, perhaps in 2018 at the earliest. Most observers feel however that the giant rocket is nothing more than a political jobs program and once it has outlived that usefulness will never survive the budget process for another 6 or 8 years. In fact, SLS folks have been given orders to invent potential (but unapproved and unfunded) missions that could use SLS, so that congressional backers have some sort of flimsy excuse to keep funding the project now. As as a result Orion will likely end up a hanger queen.
As for unmanned exploration, yes there is some current activity that will produce exciting results when previously-launched craft have reached their objectives, however the future for American planetary exploration is grim: 9 planetary probes are currently scheduled for launch in the next decade. Only 3 are American though: one a larger class, one medium class, and one smaller class. As for ongoing missions already launched, budgets are being slashed: NASA will now be spending only $9 million on outer planets missions in 2012 - enough to keep fewer than 500 people employed. America has also withdrawn from major collaborations such as the Joint Mars Initiative and ESJM/Laplace, leaving America's credibility as a partner in future spaceflight initiatives in tatters.
The only American setpiece program currently underway with a defined future is the Space Station. It is being successfully operated to NASA's credit but is wildly underutilized - partly due to the organization intended to coordinate ISS scientific exploitation (CASIS) being in total disarray.
Overall, there is no credible national space policy, mid and long term objectives, or benchmarking. Without such things, such organizations whither and die in the hostile world of American politics.
So, Chris, one needs to look at not just where we are, but where the trends are headed. They are not good. America's future in space leadership is in serious jeopardy. To claim anything other is whistling by the graveyard.
No Chris, America does NOT have an active program to put humans into orbit. It purchases launch seats from foreign countries at extortionate prices. Any nation with the funding can do the same. Before you even bring up SpaceX or SNC or CST-100 saving the day, you must admit that under a BEST case scenario none of these projects will fly humans for at least another 5 years (NASA's own estimate). Add to that a hostile congress that wants most of these potential commercial crew services killed off by cutting the budget for it by 2/3rds, and openly calling for NASA to simply sole source the whole thing out to Boeing.
As for NASA's own future Orion spacecraft, NASA has openly admitted that Orion will not fly until its giant SLS launcher is ready, perhaps in 2018 at the earliest. Most observers feel however that the giant rocket is nothing more than a political jobs program and once it has outlived that usefulness will never survive the budget process for another 6 or 8 years. In fact, SLS folks have been given orders to invent potential (but unapproved and unfunded) missions that could use SLS, so that congressional backers have some sort of flimsy excuse to keep funding the project now. As as a result Orion will likely end up a hanger queen.
As for unmanned exploration, yes there is some current activity that will produce exciting results when previously-launched craft have reached their objectives, however the future for American planetary exploration is grim: 9 planetary probes are currently scheduled for launch in the next decade. Only 3 are American though: one a larger class, one medium class, and one smaller class. As for ongoing missions already launched, budgets are being slashed: NASA will now be spending only $9 million on outer planets missions in 2012 - enough to keep fewer than 500 people employed. America has also withdrawn from major collaborations such as the Joint Mars Initiative and ESJM/Laplace, leaving America's credibility as a partner in future spaceflight initiatives in tatters.
The only American setpiece program currently underway with a defined future is the Space Station. It is being successfully operated to NASA's credit but is wildly underutilized - partly due to the organization intended to coordinate ISS scientific exploitation (CASIS) being in total disarray.
Overall, there is no credible national space policy, mid and long term objectives, or benchmarking. Without such things, such organizations whither and die in the hostile world of American politics.
So, Chris, one needs to look at not just where we are, but where the trends are headed. They are not good. America's future in space leadership is in serious jeopardy. To claim anything other is whistling by the graveyard.