Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

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Expand view Topic review: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by Chris Peterson » Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:14 am

htwhlzjnke wrote:I turned around to see a meteorite with a tail several miles long, and breaking apart leaving a brilliant orange, and yellow streak behind the comet like bright blue ball. It came down just about 3-4 miles from me at a 50-60 degree angle just short of the Gila mountain range on the west side.
Just a reminder that fireballs don't reach the ground. They typically stop burning while still tens of miles high, so when you see one appear to go to ground, it is 100 miles or more away, and still high in the atmosphere. There are powerful illusions associated with bright meteors that can make them appear close, and sometimes even seem to be in front of background objects. But illusions they are.

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by Guest » Sun Sep 25, 2011 9:31 pm

RJN wrote:I just searched YouTube to see any videos of this have been posted. Here is one:
Click to play embedded YouTube video.
I don't think I can identify any background stars, which would orient this meteor in the sky. Also there is no detailed account of the time the video was taken, or the exact location it was taken from. Still, it is a start, and hopefully more detailed videos will show up.

- RJN

This video was exactly as I saw it as well. It was amazing! So large and it last quite a long time!

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by htwhlzjnke » Sun Sep 25, 2011 4:41 pm

This is the email I sent friends and family minutes after sighting the fireball; (At approximately 7:47 pm tonight I stepped outside when all of a sudden night turned to day with a bright blue light. I thought it was a military flare as the light was coming from the Barry Goldwater bombing range direction over my shoulder. I turned around to see a meteorite with a tail several miles long, and breaking apart leaving a brilliant orange, and yellow streak behind the comet like bright blue ball. It came down just about 3-4 miles from me at a 50-60 degree angle just short of the Gila mountain range on the west side. The leading ball was black in the center with a blue halo around it, and wider than my finger at arms length, and had many peices breaking off as it burnt up and disappeared at 2-3 miles above ground level, and lasted several seconds. This was the closest and biggest I have ever witnessed fall through our atmosphere. It was truly a moment where you say to yourself "Boy I wished I had a camera". I doubt that many people that seen this were as close to it as I was. This was truly the most magnificent thing I've got to see in my life time.)
Here is a link to an interview with me by a local tv affilliate; http://titancast.titantv.com/p/kyma/v/A ... X2O1S.aspx
Apparently I was the only person see this coming down in an angle as opposed to all others seeing it's path horizontally. Sorry I didn't have a camera in hand when I sighted this. I was having a smoke outside watching the premier episode of survivor through a window when the whole back patio lit up bright blue, and I turned around and took 2 steps south to see it in all of it's bright glory. If anybody would like an actual copy of the email I sent contact me @ htwhlzjnke@yahoo.com , and I will forward it to you from my sent folder.

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by Chris Peterson » Sat Sep 17, 2011 7:56 pm

bacon55 wrote:I was under the impression that some of the jettisoned rocket components reach an altitude high enough to make at least an orbit or two before burning up.
Sure. Debris may either drop downrange, reach a low orbit and quickly decay, or stay for a long time in a higher orbit.
But yes mostly carelessness (or more accurately, laziness), leads to many things being dismissed as natural phenomenon. We put a lot of stuff up there, and when it comes down, it doesn't burn like a usual meteorite.
More than 99% of meteors are natural. Space junk does, in fact, burn almost the same as a natural meteoroid. There are two main differences: complex space junk breaks apart as it reenters, so you often get more burning pieces, and space junk is always slower than natural meteoroids, which makes it much more likely to survive to the ground, especially given the shallow entry angle.
I'm still at a loss to understand how burning various rather pure metals (based on recovered meteorite fragments) isn't going to lead to them burning in different colours.
Because visually, the objects are so hot that they appear white, and this swamps out the much dimmer individual emission lines. Those are certainly visible spectroscopically, but not vary apparent visually.
Tell me with a straight face that an extremely bright green meteorite is normal...c'mon :)
Completely normal. I have over 10,000 witness reports submitted for bright fireballs, and approximately 75% of them report seeing bright green. These fireballs stimulate [OIII] emission (501 nm) in the air around them (something well documented spectroscopically).

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by bacon55 » Sat Sep 17, 2011 4:47 pm

I was under the impression that some of the jettisoned rocket components reach an altitude high enough to make at least an orbit or two before burning up.

But yes mostly carelessness (or more accurately, laziness), leads to many things being dismissed as natural phenomenon. We put a lot of stuff up there, and when it comes down, it doesn't burn like a usual meteorite.

I'm still at a loss to understand how burning various rather pure metals (based on recovered meteorite fragments) isn't going to lead to them burning in different colours. Yes, when you heat certain things, you get your whites, your reds, your yellows, etc, but greens, extreme bright white? No. That's from things burning, ala the Jules Verne ATV. Tell me with a straight face that an extremely bright green meteorite is normal...c'mon :)

Pan STARRS can detect well under 50m objects at great distance, we just need a better system deployed. IE, data processing across multiple telescopes that's done cohesively.

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by Guest » Fri Sep 16, 2011 8:27 pm

star-coyote wrote:I don't have an explanation, but I do have a question: the "thing" left a long trail that was very bright. Presumably it was therefore also pretty large and therefore heavy. How could it have left such a ~crooked~ trail? Every meteor I've seen has been a straight or gently curving bright line.

it is a still photo taken with a prolonged shutter speed and a giggly hand. The apparent changes in direction of the "tail" is actually the photographer moving the camera. Because it's only 1 spot of light (fireball), it doesn't look blurry, it's a point that has been "blurred" into a line...

make sense?

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by Chris Peterson » Fri Sep 16, 2011 8:02 pm

sOnIc wrote:This is more what I mean tho, a 24/7 CCTV camera - "Canadian firm to put cameras on space station for live-time shots anyone can use":
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44245864/ns ... nce-space/
But need that to constantly cover the entire planet in wide-field, if a fireball happens we've got HD footage of it.
The problem is that you can't see very much of the Earth at once from the ISS, or any other low orbiting craft. So you either need a lot of imagers in low orbit, or several in high orbits, but with larger apertures and higher resolution imagers. And of course, there are already satellites that record fireballs, but since their main purpose is recording covert missile launches, their output is classified and it is only occasionally that we are able to get their data (which is very good) for natural fireballs.

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by sOnIc » Fri Sep 16, 2011 4:39 pm

This is more what I mean tho, a 24/7 CCTV camera - "Canadian firm to put cameras on space station for live-time shots anyone can use":
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44245864/ns ... nce-space/
But need that to constantly cover the entire planet in wide-field, if a fireball happens we've got HD footage of it.

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by Chris Peterson » Fri Sep 16, 2011 4:05 pm

sOnIc wrote:I'm thinking of the images of perseids taken from the ISS this year (above the meteor: http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap110817.html). If a large fireball streaks across the sky then an all-earth camera network would have captured it, night or day, no debate. And, this network of cameras would also have spectroscopic equipment so to gather information on the composition etc
There are networks of upward looking cameras that record fireballs, and there are downward looking satellites that record them. But it is very difficult for any existing technology, whether ground-based or space-based to detect the 50-100 meter sized objects that cause Barringer or Tunguska scale events. But there is a major push right now to get the detection limits down into that range.

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by sOnIc » Fri Sep 16, 2011 3:31 pm

I'm thinking of the images of perseids taken from the ISS this year (above the meteor: http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap110817.html). If a large fireball streaks across the sky then an all-earth camera network would have captured it, night or day, no debate. And, this network of cameras would also have spectroscopic equipment so to gather information on the composition etc... Better still, three ISS's at Lagrange points... sorry getting carried away...

Interesting what you say about long-period comets coming from the direction of the Sun, scary thought.

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by Chris Peterson » Fri Sep 16, 2011 3:09 pm

sOnIc wrote:
Chris Peterson wrote:The Air Force space folks had already publicly stated that it was a natural meteor. Oops.
That's exactly the kinda story UFO nuts want to hear, the government is lying or covering up, doesn't help...
It wasn't lying. It simply didn't do a proper analysis before somebody fired off a report to the press. No conspiracy, just carelessness. I intended it as an example of a failure of communication between two governments.
Maybe it would be an idea to have an SDO style all-earth surveillance network of satellites, like SDO never misses an event on the Sun, this AEO (All Earth Observatory) would see every single entry/exit event. Just thinking out loud....
We are currently cataloging dangerous objects. Most of the stuff large enough to do global damage has been identified, as well as the bulk of objects that could do regional damage. That means that the largest risk now is from things large enough to do serious damage over a few hundred square miles or less. Bad, but not the end of the world. Detecting objects that small is technically difficult.

The global risk comes from long period comets, which can come from the direction of the Sun and therefore go unobserved until just before impact. The only way to detect those would be a space-based telescope array, and even if we detected such an object, there's currently nothing we could do about it.

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by sOnIc » Fri Sep 16, 2011 3:00 pm

Chris Peterson wrote:The Air Force space folks had already publicly stated that it was a natural meteor. Oops.
That's exactly the kinda story UFO nuts want to hear, the government is lying or covering up, doesn't help...

So, maybe not a Barringer sized object in our lifetimes we hope, but Tunguska? Over a populated area, scary, but again unlikely.

Maybe it would be an idea to have an SDO style all-earth surveillance network of satellites, like SDO never misses an event on the Sun, this AEO (All Earth Observatory) would see every single entry/exit event. Just thinking out loud....

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by Chris Peterson » Fri Sep 16, 2011 2:31 pm

sOnIc wrote:I do appreciate you are talking about 're-entry' of some kind of space vehicle rather than 'just' a high-altitude hypersonic aircraft, but I find it very hard to find any reason to doubt the meteor theory. Also note that governments of the world will share some information since we don't want world war three to be started by a meteor streaking across the sky or a failed space project re-entering in foreign airspace.
One day one of these fiery meteors will put a Barringer sized hole in the ground somewhere.
Fortunately, object large enough to do that are pretty rare.

Meteors have triggered missile launch, missile reentry, and nuclear detonation detection instruments. The notion of their starting a war isn't that farfetched. Indeed, some of the allsky camera networks, radar networks, and infrasound monitoring networks are there specifically to help understand the difference between natural events and those created by human activity.

Governments don't share information all that well. I was the first to report a decay over Colorado a few years ago as a reentering rocket body from a Chinese launch (of a science mission, not a military one). The Air Force space folks had already publicly stated that it was a natural meteor. Oops.

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by Chris Peterson » Fri Sep 16, 2011 2:24 pm

bacon55 wrote:Because rocket debris will fall in trajectories that cross through launch sites. Not satellites, but things like casings, primary engine stages, etc.
That is not so. Debris falls downrange, which in the case of Vandenburg launches is over the Pacific Ocean. No more reentering debris is observed around launch sites than anywhere else. Keep in mind that if this was debris, it came from orbit, or else it would not have been moving fast enough to ablate.
No matter what direction you launch a rocket, unless there's a very unusual change in trajectory at an extreme altitude, you'll have a path that specific debris is traveling around the Earth cross through facilities like Cape Canaveral, Vandenberg, and Baikonur. The latitudes of the launch sites has a direct connection with debris concentrations as well.
The fact that the orbits have inclinations that cover the latitude of the launch site does not result in more space junk being observed near launch sites. The orbital ground paths are far too long for that.
The colour comes from the atmosphere? Absolutely not. Well, er, it comes from the materials burning in the oxygen of the atmosphere (otherwise all meteorites and space debris would burn the same colour, the atmosphere has a near universal composition.) Different materials burn in different colours. Sure you can get some prismatic effects, but if you toss a big chunk of magnesium into the atmosphere from orbit it's going to burn a bright white. Copper will burn a bright green, etc. The ionized gas you're seeing is the material of the asteroid being burned and vapourized. The ionization trail is what's left of that meteorite.
You are mistaken. Certainly, you can spectroscopically observe all sorts of elemental and chemical species in burning meteoroids. But the bulk color observed is not closely related to the material composition. The head color is primarily just the product of black body radiation, and of an integrated mix of many thermally broadened emission lines. Normally it is white, but may shift towards the red for low speed, cool meteoroids. This is also why red or orange is often reported by observers just before the meteoroid burns out. Other than the white or cooler colors seen in the head, the other color that is commonly reported in meteors is green or blue-green, which is caused by ionization of atmospheric oxygen. Ionized nitrogen also adds to the mix. Colors from meteoroid constituents- silicon, sodium, iron, nickel- are usually subtle and not well observed. There is little or no correlation between the observed colors of a meteor event and the actual composition when it can be determined by a meteorite recovery. The same holds true for space debris.
From wiki:
The visible light produced by a meteor may take on various hues, depending on the chemical composition of the meteoroid, and its speed through the atmosphere. As layers of the meteoroid are stripped off and ionized, the color of the light emitted may change according to the layering of minerals. Some of the possible colors and the compounds responsible for them are: orange/yellow (sodium); yellow (iron); blue/green (copper); purple (potassium); and red (silicate).
The Wiki article is not very good. Meteoroids don't have layered materials. What I believe this article is (badly) referencing is a phenomenon called differential ablation, which occurs with small meteoroids (the sort that produce ordinary meteors, not fireballs), where different species are produced at different times as the temperature changes- refractory materials being the last to burn. This is seen spectroscopically, and in radar studies. It isn't normally a visual phenomenon.

I've seen the first results now of camera-based speed estimates, and this fireball appears to have been moving too fast to be reentering space junk. Also, the only candidate decay object has been confirmed to have decayed south of the equator. So this fireball was almost certainly a natural meteoroid, of either stony or iron composition.

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by sOnIc » Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:53 pm

This conversation reminded me of a news article with a video from a few weeks back.
http://www.space.com/12739-video-hypers ... -htv2.html
"HTV-2 is part of an advanced weapons program called Conventional Prompt Global Strike, which is working to develop systems to reach an enemy target anywhere in the world within one hour."
Super secret eh, read all about it, and watch a clip ..

I do appreciate you are talking about 're-entry' of some kind of space vehicle rather than 'just' a high-altitude hypersonic aircraft, but I find it very hard to find any reason to doubt the meteor theory. Also note that governments of the world will share some information since we don't want world war three to be started by a meteor streaking across the sky or a failed space project re-entering in foreign airspace.
One day one of these fiery meteors will put a Barringer sized hole in the ground somewhere.

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by bacon55 » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:28 am

Because rocket debris will fall in trajectories that cross through launch sites. Not satellites, but things like casings, primary engine stages, etc.

No matter what direction you launch a rocket, unless there's a very unusual change in trajectory at an extreme altitude, you'll have a path that specific debris is traveling around the Earth cross through facilities like Cape Canaveral, Vandenberg, and Baikonur. The latitudes of the launch sites has a direct connection with debris concentrations as well.

The colour comes from the atmosphere? Absolutely not. Well, er, it comes from the materials burning in the oxygen of the atmosphere (otherwise all meteorites and space debris would burn the same colour, the atmosphere has a near universal composition.) Different materials burn in different colours. Sure you can get some prismatic effects, but if you toss a big chunk of magnesium into the atmosphere from orbit it's going to burn a bright white. Copper will burn a bright green, etc. The ionized gas you're seeing is the material of the asteroid being burned and vapourized. The ionization trail is what's left of that meteorite.

From wiki:
The visible light produced by a meteor may take on various hues, depending on the chemical composition of the meteoroid, and its speed through the atmosphere. As layers of the meteoroid are stripped off and ionized, the color of the light emitted may change according to the layering of minerals. Some of the possible colors and the compounds responsible for them are: orange/yellow (sodium); yellow (iron); blue/green (copper); purple (potassium); and red (silicate).

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by Chris Peterson » Fri Sep 16, 2011 6:32 am

bacon55 wrote:Although Vandenberg is right around the area as well, which would seriously lend credence to the reentry of space debris as well.
Why?
The ablation and colouring really seems to be something manmade more than a small rock. And yes while plenty are relatively bright it's unusual for them to be that bright and white. Aluminum, magnesium, and titanium are not common at all in space rocks.
What aspect of the colors do you find odd? Color comes from the atmosphere, not from the constituents of the body. And the reported colors and appearance in this case are absolutely typical of the majority of slow fireballs.

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by bystander » Fri Sep 16, 2011 5:23 am

This is not from the 2011 Sept 14 event.

This is the ESA ATV-1 Jules Verne 2009 Sept 29 re-entry.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... hoto2.html

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by AstroMatt » Fri Sep 16, 2011 4:56 am

We saw it from La Mesa, just east of San Diego. It appeared almost straight over head, perhaps South of zenith (I did not see it until several seconds later) and traveled east, appearing to burn out very low above the horizon, maybe 10 or 15 degrees, and it was maybe 10 or 20 degrees South of East. Very green.

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by bacon55 » Fri Sep 16, 2011 4:36 am

By craft I meant spacecraft. Not something that's for low altitude atmospheric flight. I should have specified.

Although Vandenberg is right around the area as well, which would seriously lend credence to the reentry of space debris as well. The ablation and colouring really seems to be something manmade more than a small rock. And yes while plenty are relatively bright it's unusual for them to be that bright and white. Aluminum, magnesium, and titanium are not common at all in space rocks.

Regardless I should probably send The USA Today an email to their accuracy department, their twitter source took them for a ride :)

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by Chris Peterson » Fri Sep 16, 2011 4:01 am

bacon55 wrote:I'd call the trajectory a little suspect in terms of what's in the area. Most likely an experimental military craft with a less than successful reentry, the various colours showing what was in the craft, the extreme brightness in the core of the fireball likely being titanium/aluminum burning up. That sort of brightness really is unusual. Not impossible for it to be natural elements in a meteor, but that much magnesium/titanium/aluminum seems odd.
It is not very accurate to relate meteor color to meteoroid composition. Almost all the color seen actually comes from ionization of atmospheric gases. Slow fireballs show green from the forbidden oxygen line, and orange at the head from blackbody radiation.

I doubt this was an aircraft of any kind. The path was too long. It may be re-entering space junk- at least one of the videos I've seen shows something that looks a lot more like that than it does a natural meteor. And there was a decay predicted within a few hours of then, and that rocket had an orbit that could place it near the fireball location. I haven't heard if the final decay location has been confirmed.
Certainly could be an asteroid, but again, the trajectory...yeah...while there are constantly meteorites coming in, sightings like this are rare enough that it's much more likely - for this area - to be a failed experiment, maybe a scramjet, as it seems that'd be something on order that's going to have a few failures.
Natural meteors of this brightness and duration are common, and far, far more common than re-entering material. The only thing that distinguishes an event like this is that it happened at a time and place where there were a very large number of witnesses. That isn't true for most fireballs.

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by bacon55 » Fri Sep 16, 2011 3:26 am

I know I'm not going to be popular for saying it here but I'm gonna go ahead and say it anyway :)

I'd call the trajectory a little suspect in terms of what's in the area. Most likely an experimental military craft with a less than successful reentry, the various colours showing what was in the craft, the extreme brightness in the core of the fireball likely being titanium/aluminum burning up. That sort of brightness really is unusual. Not impossible for it to be natural elements in a meteor, but that much magnesium/titanium/aluminum seems odd.

Certainly could be an asteroid, but again, the trajectory...yeah...while there are constantly meteorites coming in, sightings like this are rare enough that it's much more likely - for this area - to be a failed experiment, maybe a scramjet, as it seems that'd be something on order that's going to have a few failures.

Any images of something we know is a manmade object with all its aluminum/titanium/copper/iron coming into the atmosphere? Would be nice to compare, just seems a little suspect to me given the trajectory and brightness.


Also this is extremely strange, when looking for some pictures I came up with this. Er...

http://www.lifeslittlemysteries.com/how ... pace-0750/

That image is from 2008, it *IS* a satellite re-entering the atmosphere.

(It's the Jules Verne ATV BTW)

http://www.space.com/40-spotting-spaceships-earth.html, look at the image.

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by bystander » Fri Sep 16, 2011 2:48 am

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by neufer » Fri Sep 16, 2011 2:43 am

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteoroid wrote:
The visible light produced by a meteor may take on various hues, depending on the chemical composition of the meteoroid, and its speed through the atmosphere. As layers of the meteoroid are stripped off and ionized, the color of the light emitted may change according to the layering of minerals. Some of the possible colors and the compounds responsible for them are:
orange/yellow (sodium);
yellow (iron);
blue/green (copper, nickel);
purple (potassium); and
red (silicate, cinnamon)

Re: Fireball48 Yellow Alert: 2011 Sep 14 Southwest US Event

by neufer » Thu Sep 15, 2011 9:29 pm

Image
star-coyote wrote:
I don't have an explanation, but I do have a question: the "thing" left a long trail that was very bright. Presumably it was therefore also pretty large and therefore heavy. How could it have left such a ~crooked~ trail? Every meteor I've seen has been a straight or gently curving bright line.
I wouldn't take this particular "photograph" too seriously. :arrow:

Besides being crooked it starts & stops too abruptly & is the wrong color.

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