http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus wrote:
<<Paul Allen the Octopus or Paul Oktopus is a common octopus, used as an oracle to predict the results of German international football matches.
Paul is presented with two boxes, each containing food, and each marked with the flag of a national team. He is reported to have correctly chosen the box with the flag of the winning team in five of Germany's six Euro 2008 matches, and in each of their first six matches in the 2010 FIFA World Cup.
Click to play embedded YouTube video.
Paul was hatched from an egg at the Sea Life Centre in Weymouth, England, and now lives in a tank at Sea Life Oberhausen, a commercial attraction in Germany. Paul's name was taken from the title of a poem by the German children's writer Boy Lornsen: Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus. According to Sea Life's entertainment director, Daniel Fey, Paul demonstrated his intelligence early in life:
- "There was something about the way he looked at our visitors when they came close to the tank. It was so unusual, so we tried to find out what his special talents were."
During the lead-up to German international football matches, Paul the Octopus was presented with two similar clear plastic boxes, each one containing food such as a mussel or an oyster. Both containers were marked with a flag; one with the flag of Germany, and the other with the flag of Germany's opponent. In each instance, Paul's first choice of the two boxes was interpreted as being the animal's prediction as to which would be the victorious team. Paul was used during UEFA Euro 2008 to correctly predict the outcome of 80% of Germany's matches, but failed to predict their defeat to Spain in the championship's final.
2010 FIFA World Cup
Paul has predicted the winners of each of the six 2010 FIFA World Cup matches the German team has played so far, against Australia, Serbia (which Germany lost), Ghana, England, Argentina, and Spain. His prediction that Argentina would lose prompted Argentine chef Nicolas Bedorrou to post an Octopus recipe on Facebook.
- "There are always people who want to eat our octopus but he is not shy and we are here to protect him as well. He will survive."
—Oliver Walenciak (Paul's keeper)
Paul correctly predicted the outcome of the semi finals, by choosing the box marked with the Spanish flag. German supporters drew hope from his incorrect choice for the Germany versus Spain match in the UEFA Euro 2008, but this time they were disappointed and the result led to death threats. Since the latest prediction, Germans are no longer praising their octopus, instead calling for Paul to be cooked and eaten. The Spanish Industry Minister Miguel Sebastian called for Paul to be given safe haven in Spain, while prime minister Jose Zapatero jokingly offered to send an official state protection team to prevent the octopus from being eaten by angry Germans.
Statistical analysis
Paul's accurate predictions for the 2010 World Cup, broadcast live by German news channel NTV, have endowed him with celebrity status. Based on the Binomial Distribution in probability theory, if the prediction exercise was not biased, the probability of at least 11 correct prediction in 12 matches would be approximately 0.3%. However, the octopus chose Germany as the winning team 9 out of 12 times, which is significantly different from a 50% chance of picking each box. If the exercise was biased in favor of picking Germany, then the octopus would have a better chance at success since Germany was the favorite in many of these matches.
The German flag.
According to Janet Voight at the Chicago Field Museum of Natural History there is no evidence that the Octopus vulgaris has colour vision, and it is unlikely that colour played a part in Paul's preferences. However, Shelagh Malham of Bangor University, said octopuses can distinguish brightness, and are drawn to bold horizontal shapes.
Paul Connolly of the Daily Mail speculated that Paul may have chosen the German, Spanish and Serbian flags because each of them display horizontal shapes. And he may have picked between the flags because the Spanish flag has a broader horizontal stripe than the German flag, and the Serbian flag is more vivid than the German flag.
Volker Miske, an expert at the University of Greifswald and mentor of the German "Coleoidea Archive" sees minor chemical differences as background of Paul's decisions. He might be able to distinguish minor differences of the size of the mussels or chemical traces of the flags colors via the scent sensors in his arms. Even minor differences in the closure of the boxes might be significant as well.>>